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▲ XRP (XRP, ETF/ChatGPT Generated Image) ©
Despite explosive institutional capital inflows and a march towards nearly 1 billion token lockups, market attention is focused on when XRP (Ripple), whose price has stagnated in the early $1 (USD) range, will break through strong selling pressure and unleash its accumulated energy. XRP has recently shown unusually strong capital inflows, buoyed by the resolution of regulatory uncertainties and the expansion of institutional financial infrastructure, but it continues a tedious sideways trend, hampered by chronic large-scale structural supply. The financial investment industry believes that the current pace of capital inflow combined with the growth of the on-chain ecosystem is forming a giant compressed spring, and a full-fledged rally is expected to be triggered when catalysts such as the passage of future regulatory bills and interest rate cuts come into play.
According to TradingNews, an investment specialized media outlet, on July 9 (local time), the XRP spot ETF complex, comprising seven funds centered around Nasdaq's XRPI and REX-Osprey's XRPR, has recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion since its launch in November 2025. This complex has maintained formidable buying momentum, with net outflows occurring on only four trading days since April, successfully locking up approximately 970 million tokens from the total market circulation in its vaults. However, despite this massive supply and demand pressure, the XRP price has remained around $1.09, showing a slight weekly increase of 1.3%, indicating a significant divergence between the trend and the price.
This phenomenon stands in stark contrast to the Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF market, which has experienced approximately $5.4 billion in outflows this year, recording an unprecedented exodus of institutional investors. The institutional capital structure of Wall Street and demand for portfolio diversification are rapidly shifting towards XRP, with asset management giant Goldman Sachs, for example, allocating a whopping $154 million solely to XRP spot ETFs. Notably, Canary Capital's XRPC had the most successful ETF debut across all asset classes in 2025 based on first-day trading volume, and by mid-December, it surpassed the $1 billion cumulative net inflow mark at the fastest pace in virtual asset history.
Behind the deceptive immobility of the price, despite overwhelming institutional subscription enthusiasm, lies Ripple's monthly release of 1 billion tokens from escrow and its continuous distribution structure. As soon as buying momentum builds for spot ETF issuance, the structural potential supply overhang smoothly offsets market supply, completely absorbing price upward pressure. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, risk-off selling focused on Nasdaq and tech stocks, and the correlation with Bitcoin's price are also cited as major factors holding back XRP. In other words, a long-term convergence around the $1.09 level has been created due to the tight balance between the speed at which assets are being rapidly sequestered into institutional long-term holding vaults and the market's liquid supply.
Nevertheless, internal on-chain utility metrics clearly demonstrate the improvement in the XRP Ledger (XRPL)'s fundamental structure, accumulating energy for a rebound. The tokenization of real-world assets on the XRPL has exceeded $474 million, with total credit value approaching $1.5 billion, and daily transaction volume has surged threefold to 3 million transactions compared to the 2025 average due to the activation of Automated Market Maker (AMM) pools. Crucially, with Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD's market capitalization surpassing $1.5 billion, and its issuance on the XRPL exceeding $810 million, surpassing Ethereum, it is proving its reliability as a practical cross-border payment and settlement bridge asset.
Ultimately, the final catalyst to break this tense stalemate is expected to be the introduction of the CLARITY Act, a U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill highly likely to pass the Senate in the second half of this year, coupled with macroeconomic monetary easing policies. Market experts predict that if XRP gains the wings of legal clarity in a situation where nearly 1 billion tokens are long-term locked up and circulating liquidity is exhausted, it will instantly break through the $1.18-$1.20 resistance level. While maintaining the $1.00 support level is a short-term challenge, the supply-demand bottleneck has reached a critical point. A successful upward breakthrough could secure an additional upside potential of approximately 65% from the current price, potentially unleashing an explosive short squeeze (buying pressure to close or cover short positions) rally towards target prices of $3.50-$3.80.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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