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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency decline/AI-generated image
Warnings have emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $60,000. With the increasing possibility of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September, the resistance zone of $63,800-$64,000 has emerged as the biggest hurdle for a rebound.
According to crypto-specialized media FX Empire on July 9 (local time), the probability of a Fed interest rate hike in September has exceeded 50%. CME FedWatch data shows a 50.8% chance of a 0.25 percentage point increase in the benchmark interest rate on September 16. The forecast suggests that interest rates could rise to 3.75-4%.
A month ago, the proportion expecting a rate freeze was 62.5%. By July 9, it had fallen to 34%. The combined proportion expecting a 0.25 percentage point or 0.5 percentage point increase reached 66%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes also revealed internal disagreements within the Fed regarding inflationary pressures.
Following the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, Bitcoin fell by approximately 3% but recovered its losses with a rebound in global tech stocks. News that Apple (AAPL) expanded its $30 billion supply agreement with Broadcom (AVGO) also raised expectations for demand for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors. As risk asset investment sentiment revived, Bitcoin also showed a rebound trend.
However, on the 4-hour chart, the lower boundary of the rising wedge pattern broke down. The rebound zone of $63,800-$64,000 coincides with the 4-hour 200-day exponential moving average and the previous pattern's lower trendline. FX Empire analyzed that if it falls again from this zone, it could drop below $60,000, reaching the pattern's lower target of $59,300.
Conversely, if Bitcoin decisively breaks above $64,000 based on the 4-hour closing price, the bearish outlook weakens. FX Empire analyzed that this price breakout could invalidate the previous downtrend resumption and increase the possibility of a short-term rebound for Bitcoin. The September interest rate hike forecast and whether Bitcoin breaks $64,000 were presented as key variables in technical analysis.
[Article Key Summary]
-The probability of a 0.25 percentage point Fed rate hike in September rose to 50.8%, with the overall probability of a rate hike reaching 66%.
-Bitcoin has broken below the lower boundary of the rising wedge pattern and is facing strong resistance at $63,800-$64,000.
-Technical analysis suggests that if it fails to break above $64,000, there is a possibility of falling below $60,000 and dropping to $59,300.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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