Trump declares "truce is over"...Prediction market, probability of Iran invasion rises to 17%

▲ Iran, US, War, Prediction Market/AI Generated Image

Just one day after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the interim truce agreement with Iran was “over,” the prediction market's probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran jumped to 17%. Over $40 million has been wagered in betting markets, once again emphasizing the potential for an escalation of war.

According to U.S. economic media Benzinga on July 8 (local time), the Polygon (POL)-based prediction market Polymarket set the probability of the U.S. invading Iran by December 31, 2026, at 17%. This probability increased by 3 percentage points from 24 hours prior and had surged to a high of 68% in April.

Over $40 million has been bet in the prediction market concerning a U.S. invasion of Iran. Polymarket defines this condition as met if the U.S. initiates military operations to seize part of Iranian territory. The likelihood of extending the 60-day negotiation period to pursue a final agreement with Iran decreased from 57% to 49% during the same period.

Tensions rose again as the U.S. intensified airstrikes, citing Iran's “unjustifiable attacks” on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated on Wednesday that the interim truce and memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed with Iran were “over.” Iran warned that if the U.S. attacks, it would “hit twice as many targets” in the surrounding Gulf region.

Under the MOU, the U.S. had agreed to begin lifting maritime blockades in exchange for Iran allowing free and safe passage for merchant vessels for 60 days. However, with the resumption of hostilities, the prediction market probabilities surrounding a U.S. invasion of Iran and the extension of negotiations are also moving rapidly.

[Article Key Summary]

-The probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran by 2026 was recorded at 17% on Polymarket, a 3 percentage point increase in 24 hours.

-Over $40 million has been bet on the invasion prediction market, with the probability reaching a high of 68% last April.

-With Trump stating that the interim truce agreement with Iran was “over,” the possibility of extending the 60-day negotiation period decreased from 57% to 49%.

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