Bitcoin (BTC) 'Stumbles' on Middle East Woes...Market Eyes 'July Rebound Theory'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) was shaken by US President Donald Trump's remarks on ending the ceasefire with Iran. However, analysis suggesting strong rebounds have occurred every July in past bear markets has emerged.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on July 8 (local time), Bitcoin fell after Trump's remarks regarding the Iran ceasefire. Earlier in July, it had shown signs of recovery, rising 6%. Bitcoin spot ETFs also recorded a total net inflow of $487 million for three consecutive trading days.

Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over" at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit. Earlier, the U.S. Central Command attacked more than 60 vessels of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted past July trends. Bitcoin fell in both June 2018 and June 2022 but rebounded the following month. In July 2018, it rose by approximately 38%, and in July 2022, by 19-20%. The historical average July increase is about 9%.

However, Cowen emphasized a rebound within a bear market rather than a new bull market. In 2018 and 2022, after the July gains, all increases were given back in August and September. The final cycle bottom was formed in the third or fourth quarter thereafter. At that time, all July rebounds were halted near the 200-day moving average.

Currently, the 200-day moving average is around $74,000. Cowen expects it to drop to approximately $70,000 by mid-August. He stated that he prefers a dollar-cost averaging strategy in the second half of the year rather than aggressively chasing bear market rebounds.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin fell after Trump's remarks on ending the Iran ceasefire but has risen 6% since the start of July.

-Bitcoin rose approximately 38% in July 2018 and 19-20% in July 2022, with a historical average July increase of about 9%.

-Benjamin Cowen warned of the possibility of giving back July's gains in August and September after a rebound, suggesting a dollar-cost averaging strategy for the second half of the year.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*