Rebounding from a 19-month low! Hope rekindled for Ripple (XRP)

▲ XRP(리플) ©

XRP (Ripple) has rebounded from a 19-month low, recovering the $1.14 level, but an analysis suggests that a full trend reversal requires a recovery in spot ETF inflows and a breakthrough of key resistance levels. While on-chain indicators are improving, macroeconomic uncertainties and supply pressure are still considered variables.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on July 7 (local time), XRP was trading at approximately $1.14, having risen by about 7.9% over the past week. This marks a rebound from its 19-month low of $1.01 recorded at the end of June. However, it is still more than 60% lower than its cycle high of $3.66 recorded in July 2025. The outlet explained that the overall improvement in investor sentiment across the cryptocurrency market, driven by Bitcoin's recovery to $64,000, was a major factor behind XRP's rebound.

The media attributed June's weakness to a general risk-off sentiment in the market due to interest rate concerns. XRP fell by approximately 20% during the month, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana also showing weakness. It was analyzed that XRP, due to its high volatility, saw an even greater decline during the market downturn. Furthermore, despite continued positive news related to Ripple, the price failed to rebound because the overall market sentiment overshadowed individual positive developments.

Spot ETF fund flows were identified as a key variable. The XRP spot ETF has attracted a cumulative total of approximately $1.48 billion since its launch, but on June 30, it recorded its first net outflow in weeks. Spot ETFs directly impact the price because they are structured to buy XRP directly from the market whenever funds flow in. Additionally, Ripple's regular release of 1 billion XRP from escrow added to supply pressure, but the media explained that a significant portion of this volume is managed by being re-locked in escrow.

On the other hand, on-chain indicators are sending positive signals. At the end of June, approximately 5,000 new wallets were created in a single day, marking the largest increase in the past three months, and online investor sentiment showed about 3.7 times more positive opinions than negative ones. The media reported that the reduction in open interest has largely alleviated excessive leverage, and the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator also showed a buy signal on the monthly chart. This suggests that an increasing number of investors are perceiving the current price range as a buying opportunity.

Technically, $1.00 was presented as the most crucial support level. Conversely, the $1.18-$1.20 range is a short-term resistance, and the media diagnosed that a recovery to $1.65 would be necessary for a significant trend reversal. The media also added that while July has historically been a bullish month for XRP, with an average rise of about 10%, this year's seasonal strength might not be as effective due to persistent market fear. Standard Chartered lowered its XRP price target for the end of 2026 from the previous $8 to $2.80 but maintained its long-term outlook with a 2030 target of $28.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*