Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls Criticize Blind Faith in 4-Year Cycle Theory..."The Real Bull Market Hasn't Arrived Yet"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Altcoin, Bull Market / AI-generated image

A direct refutation has emerged against the market's conventional wisdom that Bitcoin (BTC) has already peaked in its 4-year cycle at around $120,000. It is argued that "the real bull market for Bitcoin and altcoins has not yet begun," and that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and economic expansion could open up a new upward phase.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on July 6 (local time) that “Bitcoin has not yet experienced a real bull market,” arguing that a full-fledged bull run driven by increased productivity and cyclical economic expansion still lies ahead. Gambardello explained that although Bitcoin rose by approximately 700% from its 2023 low, new demand and political tailwinds, such as the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, expectations for a crypto-friendly administration, and anticipated regulatory changes, propelled the surge.

Gambardello pointed out that if the 4-year cycle theory were correct, altcoins would face serious problems. In the Bitcoin bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021, altcoins followed with explosive gains, but in 2025, even after Bitcoin reached an all-time high, most altcoins did not approach their previous highs. He suggested that “if 2025 was the peak of the 4-year cycle, it means altcoins might not reach new all-time highs again,” raising the possibility that the market has overly relied on a flawed cycle theory.

He attributed the sluggishness of altcoins to a prolonged economic contraction. Gambardello analyzed that altcoins are assets positioned at the furthest end of risk-on flows, and a sustained economic growth and liquidity expansion must be confirmed for them to join a full-fledged uptrend. He argued that “the crypto winter occurred because it was a winter in the economic cycle,” and that the record PMI contraction phase is ending, entering an early stage of productivity expansion.

The copper-gold ratio and the Russell 2000 index were also presented as key evidence. A trend where copper, sensitive to production and manufacturing activities, strengthens relative to gold, a safe-haven asset, can indicate a recovery in actual economic growth. Gambardello assessed that the copper-gold ratio is forming a bottom. He presented a risk-on diffusion structure where Bitcoin moves after PMI expansion, a rising copper-gold ratio, and a strong Russell 2000 index, with altcoins rising in the final stage.

Gambardello emphasized that “PMI has just begun to expand,” and that past cryptocurrency bull markets also coincided with rising PMI phases. He pointed out that if one only trusts the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, a simple strategy of waiting until October 2026 to buy again should be possible, but the market is not that simple. Gambardello's final argument is that Bitcoin and altcoins are moving past a multi-year economic contraction phase and entering a new market stage driven by increased productivity and economic growth.

[Key Article Summary]

-Dan Gambardello refuted the interpretation that Bitcoin peaked in its 4-year cycle at around $120,000, asserting that the real bull market has not yet begun.

-He attributed the altcoin sluggishness not to a failure of the 4-year cycle but to a prolonged PMI contraction and economic recession.

-Based on the copper-gold ratio, Russell 2000, and PMI expansion trends, he assessed that the full-fledged bull market for Bitcoin and altcoins is just beginning.

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