to leave a comment.
▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT Generated Image
Contrary to bearish views that Bitcoin (BTC) would fall to $40,000 in October according to its traditional four-year cycle, technical signals indicating a bottom formation have been successively detected. With Bitcoin spot ETF funds turning into a net inflow of approximately $200 million, coupled with a bullish divergence in the weekly Relative Strength Index and defense of long-term moving averages, the market's four-year cycle formula is being put to the test.
Lark Davis, host of the crypto podcast The Lark Davis Show, stated in an episode on July 6 (local time) that Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows transitioned from a long period of net outflows to a net inflow of approximately $200 million last Thursday. Bernstein analyzed that while Bitcoin has fallen 54% from its high of $125,000, this is a more moderate decline compared to the 75-90% drops seen in past cycles. MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased approximately 175,000 BTC for $14 billion in 2026, and Bernstein maintained its year-end Bitcoin target of $150,000.
Davis pointed out that the market is overly fixated on the scenario that “if it's a four-year cycle, $40,000 should come in October.” Bitcoin recently retested the 20-day exponential moving average three times and also retested the upper boundary after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern. On the weekly chart, a bullish divergence appeared, where the price made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded higher lows. He explained that if Bitcoin rises to around the 200-week exponential moving average, which is approximately $68,500, the likelihood of a bullish crossover in the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) increases. In the previous similar signal, Bitcoin rose from about $68,000 to $83,000.
He also drew a line regarding the possibility of a repeat of the 2022 bear market. Davis noted that the Terra incident, the collapse of lending firms, and the bankruptcy of major exchanges occurred successively within six months at that time, suggesting that the current market is more likely closer to the typical bear markets of 2015 and 2018. In the altcoin market, selling pressure has dropped to its lowest level in years, based on the cumulative bid-ask volume difference over a year. He noted that “the capitulation of sellers may be largely over,” focusing on the trend where new buying interest drives prices up after a reduction in selling volume.
Solana (SOL) was highlighted as a cryptocurrency with strong network economic activity even amidst the bear market. Solana applications such as Phantom, Pump.fun, and Jupiter recorded monthly revenues of $94 million in May 2026, significantly exceeding Solana's actual economic value of $18.6 million. Solana ranked second in global spot cryptocurrency trading volume for two consecutive weeks, with a weekly trading volume of $12.25 billion, surpassing Bybit. In contrast, Cardano (ADA) surged 41% from a low of approximately $0.13, but Davis maintained a negative stance on spot purchases, evaluating network activity and price increases separately, stating that “Cardano trades like a memecoin.”
In Ethereum (ETH), a double bottom pattern was observed where the $1,800 resistance overlapped with the 50-day exponential moving average. Davis explained that “if the daily candle closes above approximately $1,810, a double bottom breakout can be confirmed,” and set a technical target price of approximately $2,100. The Bitcoin four-year cycle debate, reduced altcoin selling pressure, Solana's economic activity, and whether Ethereum breaks above $1,810 are key observation points for the cryptocurrency market presented in the video.
[Article Key Summary]
-Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned into a net inflow of approximately $200 million, and signals of a bullish divergence in the weekly Relative Strength Index and defense of long-term moving averages have appeared.
-Lark Davis questioned the four-year cycle theory predicated on Bitcoin reaching $40,000 in October and suggested that the current market is more likely to resemble the bear markets of 2015 and 2018 rather than 2022.
-Solana recorded a weekly trading volume of $12.25 billion, and Ethereum's technical target price was set at approximately $2,100 if it breaks above $1,810.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.