US Cryptocurrency Regulation, Passage Probability Jumps to 55%... July 13 'Day of Destiny' Countdown

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Expectations for the passage of a key US cryptocurrency bill have revived. The probability of passage, which had fallen below 40%, surged to 55% in just a few days.

According to U.Today, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, on July 5 (local time), Polymarket reported that the probability of the US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) being enacted into law reached 55%. The likelihood of passage, which had dropped below 40% just days earlier, quickly rebounded.

The support of major law enforcement organizations is cited as a key variable that shifted the sentiment. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) became the first major law enforcement organization to endorse the US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill this week. NOBLE stated that the bill “does not alter long-standing federal criminal justice authorities that investigators and prosecutors rely on every day.”

Concerns within law enforcement regarding potential loopholes for illicit finance are also subsiding. Immediately after NOBLE's endorsement, the Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA) shifted its stance on the bill to 'neutral.' As the momentum for the bill grew, Polymarket's probability of passage also surged.

However, legislative time is tight ahead of the August recess. The bill had not been brought to a full Senate vote by early July, and there was no significant progress before July 4. The opportunity for a full Senate vote will reopen after July 13, when lawmakers return from recess, and the final text of the bill is also likely to be released soon.

Over 200 companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Kraken, are urging a Senate vote. Ripple also launched a mobile campaign in Washington D.C. related to the US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned, “If we don't act now, another opportunity to pass the bill might not come until 2030.”

[Article Key Summary]

-On Polymarket, the probability of the US Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill being enacted into law surged from below 40% to 55%.

-NOBLE's endorsement and MCSA's shift to a neutral stance were cited as key factors in the resurgence of legislative momentum surrounding the bill.

-With over 200 companies urging a Senate vote, the next opportunity for a full Senate vote will open after July 13.

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