Bitcoin (BTC)·Ethereum (ETH), Fear-driven Sell-off Ends... Is This an All-Time Opportunity?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)

From Bitcoin (BTC) to Ethereum (ETH), Sui (SUI), and Cardano (ADA), signals indicating the tail end of a long-term bearish trend have converged. As a result, an analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market has entered a phase where it should consider new opportunities rather than trying to pinpoint the exact bottom.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on July 4 (local time), "It becomes much clearer if you call it an opportunity instead of calling it a bottom." He explained that while Bitcoin's exact bottom may have already occurred or could form weeks or months later, it represents an opportunity zone from a long-term investment perspective. Gambardello analyzed that cryptocurrencies are in the final stage of following other assets like gold, copper, and the Russell 2000, citing the multi-month correction after the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the recovery of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business cycle.

For Ethereum, a structure where the 20-week moving average fell below the 200-week moving average was presented as a key signal. In December 2022, when a similar trend appeared, Ethereum's bottom had already formed, and it was poised to break through major moving averages. Gambardello interpreted this cross as a lagging indicator showing a prolonged bearish trend rather than a new negative factor, stating, "It's a big signal indicating that Ethereum's bottom was very close or has already formed." The key hurdle going forward is testing and breaking through the $2,000-$2,500 range, where the 20-week and 200-week moving averages are located.

Sui was identified as one of the highest opportunity zones, based on bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and PMI expansion. While the price formed lower lows, the RSI formed higher lows, and the video explained that similar trends appeared at the lows in 2023 and 2024. Gambardello emphasized, "Sui is one of the most interesting high-opportunity setups in all of crypto." However, he noted that a sustained close above the 20-week moving average, located at approximately $0.9, followed by a test of the 50-week moving average, would be necessary to discuss a full-fledged bull market entry.

Cardano appears to have one of the weakest charts among major assets, but it has been evaluated as having extreme oversold conditions and a long-term moving average structure similar to past cycle endings. A trend where the 50-week moving average fell below the 200-week moving average also appeared in December 2022, at which point Cardano rebounded after repeated sell-offs. Gambardello presented a breakthrough of the 20-week moving average at approximately $0.23 as the first confirmation signal. He analyzed that a Cardano bull market could only be discussed after surpassing the 50-week moving average, located at $0.44-$0.45, and continued PMI expansion.

However, Gambardello did not conclude that the weekend's rise was a trend reversal. He warned that while Cardano had risen by about 11% at the time of filming, the gains could evaporate by Monday, and it would not be surprising if it retreated to $0.14 next week. He emphasized that cycle bottoms and reversals take time and that rather than a single strong surge, confirmation of Ethereum breaking $2,000-$2,500, Sui stabilizing above its 20-week moving average, and Cardano breaking $0.23 with PMI expansion is necessary.

[Article Key Summary]

-Dan Gambardello argued that instead of trying to pinpoint the exact cryptocurrency bottom, the current market should be viewed as a long-term opportunity zone.

-For Ethereum, breaking $2,000-$2,500; for Sui, the 20-week moving average; and for Cardano, breaking $0.23 were presented as key confirmation zones.

-The analysis suggests that weekend gains could reverse, making confirmation of long-term moving average breakthroughs and PMI expansion crucial.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*