Trump vs. Biden, Who Saved Bitcoin (BTC) More? Comparing Their Track Records

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded nearly the same rate of decline during Donald Trump's second term as US President and Joe Biden's tenure as former US President, leading to an analysis that macroeconomics, rather than politics, moved the market.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Benzinga on July 4 (local time), analyst Benjamin Cowen compared the recent Bitcoin price trends by US presidential term in a June 30 podcast. 524 days after inauguration, Bitcoin fell by 43.8% during Biden's tenure, and by 41.1% during Trump's second term.

The strongest performances by presidential term came during former US President Barack Obama's second term and Trump's first term. Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin's market capitalization at the time was much smaller than it is now. He identified macroeconomic conditions as the reason for similar Bitcoin performance recently, despite different political environments.

Cowen analyzed that persistent inflation, unemployment concerns, and tight financial conditions put pressure on risk assets. He also noted the recent recovery of the US Dollar Index (DXY). He diagnosed that this trend resembles the one during Trump's first term, when the dollar weakened immediately after his inauguration before rebounding and burdening risk assets.

Based on past trends, Cowen predicted that the Dollar Index could continue its strength to the 105-106 range. He analyzed that if dollar strength continues until the end of the year, it could put additional pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

During Biden's tenure, Bitcoin formed a cycle low in its final decline after a brief counter-trend rebound in late summer. Cowen predicted that if the current cycle follows the same pattern, Bitcoin could form a low later this year and begin a new expansion phase in 2027.

[Article Key Summary]

-During the 524 days of Trump's second term, Bitcoin fell by 41.1%, a similar performance to the 43.8% decline during Biden's tenure.

-Benjamin Cowen analyzed that inflation, unemployment concerns, and tight financial conditions, rather than politics, determined Bitcoin's performance.

-Cowen suggested the possibility of a cycle low forming later this year, followed by a new expansion phase starting in 2027.

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