Fear Decreases, Altcoin Season Revives... Events Shaking the Crypto Market This Week

Bitcoin recovers $63,000... Altcoins also 'rally together', what's the biggest variable this week?

▲ Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency ©

The cryptocurrency market continues its strong recovery in the first week of July, rapidly improving investor sentiment. As Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to $63,000, major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) also rose across the board. However, this week, macroeconomic events such as the minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and U.S. service industry economic indicators are scheduled, which are expected to be a watershed moment for the sustainability of the upward trend.

According to CoinMarketCap as of 8:08 AM KST on July 5, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 0.86% over 24 hours to $2.19 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index, which indicates market sentiment, remained at 27, still in the 'Fear' zone, but the Altcoin Season Index recorded 52, indicating an expansion of interest from a Bitcoin-centric market to altcoins.

Among the top market cap assets, Ethereum showed the strongest rise, up 12.99% over the past 7 days, while Solana rose 15.21%, Hyperliquid (HYPE) 11.98%, and Ripple 10.18%. Bitcoin also rose 4.94% over the same period, trading at $63,176. On a 24-hour basis, while Bitcoin (+1.08%), Ethereum (+1.52%), and XRP (+2.74%) maintained their strength, Solana showed a slight decline (-0.56%), appearing to take a short breather.

The backdrop to last week's bull market includes the recovery of risk asset appetite and a rebound in the AI semiconductor sector. U.S. stocks saw semiconductor shares plummet due to concerns about a slowdown in Meta Platforms' AI investment, but investor sentiment quickly recovered as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged based on expectations for AI memory demand. Furthermore, with the continued assessment that the global AI investment cycle remains robust, Nasdaq futures and risk assets overall rebounded, and the cryptocurrency market showed a similar trend. The altcoin rally, particularly led by Ethereum, is also interpreted as being linked to the recovery of risk asset preference.

The market this week is highly likely to react more sensitively to macroeconomic variables. The biggest event is the FOMC minutes, which will be released on the 8th (U.S. Eastern Time). If Fed officials' perceptions of inflation and interest rates are confirmed to be more hawkish than expected, it could put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if content supporting expectations of inflation deceleration and interest rate cuts is confirmed, the upward trend could continue. The U.S. S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, also released on the same day, are drawing attention as key indicators for judging whether the U.S. economy is slowing down.

Along with this, Samsung Electronics' provisional Q2 earnings, to be announced on the 7th, and SK Hynix's ADR-related schedule on the 10th are also variables that will influence global AI investment sentiment. If the AI and semiconductor sectors continue their strong performance, risk asset preference could expand, creating a favorable atmosphere in the cryptocurrency market. However, with lingering concerns about AI investment overheating and monetary policy uncertainty, analysis suggests that the market this week needs to be prepared for the possibility of increased volatility depending on economic indicators and the Fed's message.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*