XRP (Ripple), 17% Average Rise in Q3...Will 13 Years of Data Analysis Hit the Mark?

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XRP is once again following its past pattern of rebounding every third quarter after consecutive declines in the first and second quarters, bringing the possibility of recovering $1.20 to the forefront of the market.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet TheCryptoBasic on July 3 (local time), XRP has failed to escape the downtrend that began in October 2025, falling 40.17% in 2026 alone. However, the outlet analyzed that since XRP began trading in the open market in 2013, a third-quarter rebound has always followed years where XRP declined in both the first and second quarters.

The first such instance was in 2014. XRP plummeted nearly 68% in Q1 2014 and fell an additional 57% in Q2. Monthly figures showed -24.9% in January 2014, -33.62% in February, -35.73% in March, -38.95% in April, -22.53% in May, and -8.61% in June. Subsequently, in July 2014, it rose 36.73% from $0.00379 to $0.00519, and Q3 ended with a 22.9% gain.

The same trend was repeated in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. After hitting a high of $3.31 in January 2018, XRP plunged 77.7% in Q1 2018 and recorded -9.1% in Q2. However, a 73.6% surge in September 2018 offset the losses of July and August, turning the Q3 return to 24.4%. In 2022, after declining -2.14% in Q1 and -59.4% in Q2, it rebounded 44.5% in Q3.

The 2026 trend also aligns with past patterns. After a 35.4% drop in Q4 2025, XRP fell 27.1% in Q1 2026 and 22.4% in Q2. Subsequently, it began an attempt at recovery in early July, and as of the reporting time, the Q3 return was recorded at 6.05%.

TheCryptoBasic reported that XRP's average Q3 increase since 2013 is 17.3%. Out of 13 years, there were only three instances of Q3 declines, and Q3 has historically been evaluated as the quarter showing the most consistent recovery trend. The outlet noted that if XRP maintains its average increase of 17.3% this quarter, it could close Q3 above $1.20, but the continuation of the rebound in Q4 is not guaranteed.

[Key Article Summary]

-XRP declined 27.1% in Q1 2026 and 22.4% in Q2, then rebounded 6.05% at the beginning of Q3.

-In 2014, 2018, and 2022, a Q3 rebound occurred after consecutive declines in Q1 and Q2.

-TheCryptoBasic analyzed that if XRP maintains an average Q3 increase of 17.3%, it could close the quarter above $1.20.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*