Bitcoin Recovers $62,000... Options Market 'Still Cautious' Despite End of Whale Selling

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Dasol Ko

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $62,000 level, buoyed by weaker-than-expected US employment figures, but institutions maintained a cautious stance, stating it's too early to consider it a full-fledged uptrend. While large-scale selling by whale investors has effectively concluded, analysis suggests that defensive positions are continuing in the options market in preparation for increased volatility.

According to investment media FXStreet on July 4 (local time), crypto asset management firm CoinShares analyzed that US 2-year Treasury yields fell and expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) eased, as US non-farm payrolls in June increased by only 57,000, significantly below market expectations of 115,000. Consequently, Bitcoin rebounded from its recent low of approximately $57,000 to surpass $62,000. However, CoinShares commented, "This indicator does not signify a policy shift," and assessed that the monetary policy environment remains restrictive.

CoinShares diagnosed that actual supply and demand conditions are improving more than market sentiment. In particular, whale wallets holding over 100,000 BTC sold approximately $39 billion worth of Bitcoin since the market peak in October 2025, but this selling pressure has now largely ended. The media stated, "The biggest selling pressure that weighed down the market in 2025 has virtually disappeared."

However, institutional fund flows remained mixed. This year, Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of approximately $2.7 billion, while AI-related ETFs attracted about $5.5 billion during the same period. CoinShares interpreted this not as investors completely abandoning Bitcoin, but rather as moving funds to the AI sector, which was the strongest investment theme in the market at the time. At the same time, it pointed out that supply burdens related to strategies, geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Iran, and the slowdown in the promotion of US cryptocurrency-related legislation remain market risk factors.

The options market is also not letting its guard down yet. Glassnode analyzed that risk re-evaluation is underway in the options market, and implied volatility based on the DVOL index is showing an upward trend. However, it remains at a lower level than during past major market shocks, which Glassnode interpreted as investors re-pricing risk. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew showed a defensive structure where put options maintained a higher premium than call options, and Bitcoin was assessed to still be in a negative gamma regime, indicating a potential for increased price volatility.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $62,450, up 1.5% over 24 hours. While the end of whale selling is being received as a positive signal in the market, given the defensive positions in the options market and lingering macroeconomic uncertainties, the market is leaning towards the possibility of continued high volatility in the short term.

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