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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency security, quantum computer/AI generated image ©
Amidst a heated debate that the destructive computational power of quantum computers threatens the long-term security of digital assets, the latest artificial intelligence (AI) model has presented specific guidelines for the collapse of Bitcoin's (BTC) encryption system, drawing significant market attention. This is because, in theory, advanced quantum computers equipped with Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys in a matter of hours, thereby neutralizing elliptic curve cryptography (ECC).
According to Finbold, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on July 4 (local time), OpenAI's latest AI model, 'ChatGPT-5.5,' analyzed that considering the current level of quantum superposition technology, the probability of Bitcoin's encryption being broken within this decade is less than 1%, virtually close to zero. However, it warned that as time passes, the risk will gradually increase, with a 5-10% chance of the network being breached by 2035, and a 50-70% chance by 2045. Without a self-upgrade of Bitcoin thereafter, the likelihood of hacking would become very high.
Based on specific figures, the media pointed out that the scaling speed of quantum hardware is more challenging than expected. It noted that moving from hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits to millions of error-corrected physical qubits, essential for decryption, requires a massive engineering leap. Current systems still need several more years to demonstrate large-scale fault tolerance.
However, recent Glassnode data indicates that approximately 6.04 million BTC, accounting for 30.2% of the total supply, could be exposed to risk with the advent of powerful quantum computers. Nevertheless, experts emphasize that if reliable threat signals are detected, blockchain developers will initiate a migration to quantum-resistant signatures, a transition that, while taking several years, is technically quite feasible.
When asked about the most plausible specific timeline, the AI model cited 2042 as the emergence of the first quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin's current signature scheme. This is a somewhat more optimistic stance than that of Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney, who predicted the arrival of the risk between 2030 and 2035, depending on advancements in error correction technology.
Rather, this analysis is closer to the outlook of Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who stated that quantum computers would not pose a serious threat for at least 20 years. While some in the industry saw heightened tension earlier this year, with Jefferies liquidating Bitcoin positions due to quantum computing threats, the prevailing assessment is that there is ample time to respond with long-term containment strategies and technological advancements rather than immediate doom.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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