Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX), Divergent Fates in July...Who Will Lead?

▲ Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX (SPCX)/AI generated image

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) face divergent tests in the July investment landscape. Tesla is confronting margin pressure ahead of its Q2 earnings announcement. SpaceX, backed by institutional fund inflows after its IPO, is building a short-term advantage narrative.

According to financial media outlet Yahoo Finance on July 3 (local time), Tesla is set to undergo vehicle margin verification ahead of its Q2 earnings announcement on July 22. In contrast, SpaceX has been attracting investor interest with its launch business, Starlink, and xAI computing segments since its IPO in June.

Tesla's Q1 revenue increased by 15.78% year-over-year to $22.387 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.41, exceeding market expectations of $0.3481. Automotive gross margin improved from 16.2% to 21.1%.

However, demand warning signs remain. Revenue from the Services and Other segment increased by 42% to $3.745 billion. Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscribers grew by 51% to 1.28 million. Revenue from the Energy Generation and Storage segment decreased by 12% to $2.408 billion. Days inventory also increased from 22 to 27 days.

SpaceX has a limited history of public earnings disclosures. However, its registration statement indicated revenue of $18 billion for the past 12 months and a 33% growth rate. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion per month for the use of Colossus capacity. The Google contract is worth $920 million per month for using infrastructure related to 110,000 NVIDIA (NVDA) GPUs until mid-2029. These trends have led to a revenue forecast of $62 billion by 2026.

In the short-term July outlook, the momentum is with SpaceX. Polymarket estimated a 94% probability that Tesla would close above $320 by the end of the month. However, the probability of surpassing $400 was only 30.5%. The most likely price to be touched in July was $360, with a probability of 56.5%. The media pointed out that Tesla is burdened with a 389x price-to-earnings ratio and vehicle margin pressure.

The conclusion is clear. Tesla possesses investment appeal in physical AI with Robotaxi, Optimus, and Megapack. However, the short-term trend until the end of July suggests that SpaceX is stronger, driven by immediate post-IPO fund inflows, its launch monopoly narrative, Starlink's growth, and xAI computing expansion.

[Key Article Summary]

-Tesla is facing vehicle margin pressure as a key variable ahead of its Q2 earnings announcement on July 22.

-SpaceX is raising expectations for institutional fund inflows, driven by its launch business, Starlink, and xAI computing segments after its IPO.

-The media judged that SpaceX is more dominant than Tesla in short-term stock trends until the end of July.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*