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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its long-term algorithmic support line. However, Fidelity Investments stated that "a reversal catalyst is not yet visible," designating the defense of the $60,000 level as a key test.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet U.Today on July 3 (local time), Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, diagnosed that speculative short-term capital is shifting from alternative stores of value to high-growth tech stocks. He believes that while Bitcoin is nearing its long-term bottom, there is a lack of bullish catalysts to drive a trend reversal in the current macroeconomic environment.
Timmer stated, "The same logic applies to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is approaching its power law support line. However, a catalyst for a reversal is not yet visible." U.Today explained that Bitcoin's power law model is a logarithmic chart that divides long-term price movements into an upper resistance line, a central trend line, and a historical support baseline.
In the current market, $60,000 is considered a psychological and technical turning point. The power law support line is currently located at $58,237. This baseline has acted as a long-term structural bottom for Bitcoin's price.
Past cases also add weight to this test. In 2015, Bitcoin recorded $230 near the model support line of $252. In 2018, it fell to $3,204 against the model support line of $2,521. In 2022, it formed a bottom of $16,366 near the model support line of $15,006.
The problem is how strong a premium Bitcoin can regain above its structural bottom. U.Today reported that in past bull markets, Bitcoin formed a high premium compared to its structural bottom, but currently, that premium has been exhausted. The growth in global money supply has also slowed, and the speculative premium that pushed Bitcoin above $120,000 has disappeared.
Timmer maintained a cautious stance on immediately declaring a bottom, even though the $58,237 power law support line has historically functioned as a long-term bottom from an institutional investor's perspective. U.Today reported that Bitcoin could stagnate around this support line for an extended period in a poor macroeconomic environment before a real reversal occurs.
[Key Article Summary]
-Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments diagnosed that Bitcoin is approaching its long-term power law support line, but lacks a reversal catalyst.
-Bitcoin's key psychological and technical turning point is $60,000, and the power law support line is currently located at $58,237.
-U.Today reported that the slowdown in global money supply growth and the exhaustion of speculative premium are acting as burdens preventing Bitcoin's immediate rebound.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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