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▲ Netflix (Netflix, NFLX), stock price decline/AI generated image
Netflix (NFLX) defied the tech stock sell-off, surging over 5% despite a sharp drop in the Nasdaq 100 index. While the long-term trend remains in bearish territory, the expansion of live sports and anticipation for July earnings have led investors to bet on Netflix once again.
According to financial media outlet Benzinga on July 2 (local time), Netflix shares rose 5.43% to $78.22, despite the overall weakness in tech stocks that day. Considering the Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2% on the same day, Netflix's rebound was notably strong compared to the market. However, the stock price is still 7.2% lower than its 50-day simple moving average of $84.13 and 18.7% lower than its 200-day simple moving average of $96.11, indicating that a long-term trend recovery has not yet been confirmed.
Technical indicators are also clear. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in neutral territory at 48.46, suggesting that the short-term rebound has not entered overbought conditions. Key resistance was set at $91.5, and key support at $71. Given that buying interest emerged near the 52-week low of $70.86 recorded in June, whether the $71 level holds will be the criterion for determining a resumption of downward pressure.
The backdrop to this rebound is Netflix's live sports strategy. Netflix has embarked on expanding its sports content, including WWE, MLB events, five NFL games in the 2026 season, and the NFL Honors in February 2027. The possibility of streaming a rematch between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao was also discussed, but uncertainty remains for that particular stream due to ongoing litigation.
Earnings expectations also supported the stock's rebound. Netflix is set to announce its earnings on July 16, with the market anticipating earnings per share of $0.79 and revenue of $12.58 billion. This is higher than the previous year's figures of $0.72 EPS and $11.08 billion in revenue for the same period. The average analyst price target was compiled at $113.36, and Bank of America (BofA Securities) maintained a 'buy' rating with a $125 price target. Guggenheim issued a 'buy' rating with a $120 price target, and Piper Sandler gave an 'overweight' rating with a $115 price target.
Netflix is pursuing a strategy to boost both growth and user engagement by combining its global subscriber base of over 300 million, ad-supported plans, and live sports. While Benzinga Edge metrics showed strength with a quality score of 92.22 and a growth score of 89.74, momentum score was weak at 5.38 and value score at 20.71. For the stock's current rebound to be more than just a short-term retracement, it needs to recover its 50-day moving average and break above the $91.5 resistance level.
*Related Article: Netflix (NFLX) Plunges to 52-Week Low...Wall Street Rates 'Buy'
[Article Summary]
-Netflix shares rose 5.43% even on a day when the Nasdaq 100 index fell by more than 2%, showing a different trend from the tech stock sell-off.
-The stock price remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, so a long-term trend recovery has not yet been confirmed, and breaking above the $91.5 resistance level is key.
-The expansion of live sports and expectations for July 16 earnings acted as catalysts for the rebound, but momentum and valuation indicators still remain a burden.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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