Bitcoin (BTC): Whales Show Record Accumulation Signal, But Is a Bull Market Starting?

▲ Cryptocurrency whale, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC, creating an all-time high accumulation signal, but whether the bull market will resume is expected to be confirmed only after overcoming the technical hurdle of recovering the 20-week and 50-week moving averages.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on July 2 (local time) that Bitcoin whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC. Gambardello described this movement as “the largest surge ever in terms of Bitcoin whale holdings,” noting that record accumulation has occurred in a period where the possibility of a price reversal is being discussed.

He compared past bottoming out instances with the current trend. During the COVID-19 bottom in March 2020, whales bought 150,000 BTC, and Bitcoin subsequently rose 18-fold. At the FTX bottom in November 2022, whales bought 180,000 BTC, and Bitcoin subsequently rose 7-fold. The accumulation volume in July 2026 is 270,000 BTC, a larger figure than the previous two major bottoms.

Gambardello analyzed that the current risk score of the cryptocurrency market is similar to past opportunity periods. According to the video, the current risk score is 8, and historically, prices were 100% higher 3 months and 1 year later in such periods. He explained that the FTX bottom period in November-December 2022 also had a single-digit risk score, and the risk score during the COVID-19 bottom was 5.

However, he did not conclude that a bull market would resume solely based on whale accumulation. Gambardello mentioned that since 2013, when Bitcoin fell for three consecutive quarters, it rose an average of 4,600% over an average of 800 days. He added that in 2 out of 3 past instances, no new major bottom occurred afterward. He presented these statistics, along with the 6-month candle trend, PMI expansion signals, and the possibility of a productivity boom, as reasons for the market to pay attention again.

Technically, the 20-week and 50-week moving averages were presented as key criteria. Gambardello noted that the 20-week moving average is around $69,000-$70,000, and a breakthrough of this level could be the first rebound signal. However, he explained that a mere breakthrough does not confirm a bull market, and confidence in a full reversal increases only with a recovery to the 50-week moving average of $89,000.

Bitcoin is still below the 200-week moving average, leaving open the possibility of short-term resistance. Gambardello emphasized that a recovery of the 200-week moving average, a breakthrough of the 20-week moving average, and a recovery of the 50-week moving average must be confirmed in sequence. While he assessed whale accumulation as a bullish signal, he maintained a cautious stance, stating, “we don't know if this is the bottom,” leaving open the possibility of further declines or resistance at major moving averages during the summer.

[Article Summary]

-Bitcoin whales accumulated 270,000 BTC, creating an all-time high accumulation signal, surpassing the 150,000 BTC at the COVID-19 bottom and 180,000 BTC at the FTX bottom.

-The current cryptocurrency risk score is presented as 8, and statistics show that prices were higher 3 months and 1 year later in such past periods.

-Analysis suggests that a breakthrough of the 20-week moving average at $69,000-$70,000 and the 50-week moving average at $89,000 is necessary to confirm a bull market.

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