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▲ Ethereum (ETH)/AI-generated image
Ethereum (ETH) has seen buying interest confirmed twice near the $1,500 support level, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, with the long-term downtrend channel and major moving average resistance still overhead, analysts suggest this rebound is more likely a relief rally than a trend reversal.
According to crypto media outlet Cryptopotato on July 2 (local time), Ethereum remains within a long-term downtrend channel that has persisted for several months. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are situated in the $2,000 to $2,200 range, both maintaining a downward slope. The outlet diagnosed that the macroeconomic trend remains bearish as Ethereum's price is below these moving averages.
However, strong demand was observed in the $1,500 support zone after a sharp decline. Ethereum tested this price level twice, a movement that increased the potential for a double bottom formation. Although the pattern is not yet confirmed, the repeated defense of the same support level indicates a slowdown in selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also recovering from near oversold territory, gradually moving towards the midline. This indicates improving short-term momentum without signs of overheating. For a bullish scenario to gain traction, Ethereum needs to reclaim the $1,800 resistance level to confirm the double bottom structure. If this zone is breached, the next major supply zone is $2,000-$2,200, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge.
On the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend is clearer. Ethereum accumulated liquidity below the $1,500 low, after which buying interest re-entered, preventing further declines. The current price is approaching a key fair value gap around $1,700, a zone where selling pressure could emerge, overlapping with recent bearish shocks. A clear breakthrough of this zone opens the possibility of heading towards the $1,850 resistance level.
Mid-to-long-term bullish expectations have also been observed in the derivatives market. Looking at the distribution of open interest in option contracts, the largest volume is concentrated in the December 2026 expiry, with call option open interest significantly exceeding put options. Call option dominance was also evident in major expiries at the end of September and July 2026. The outlet analyzed that while a bullish reversal cannot be concluded based solely on option positions, a combination of double bottom confirmation and resistance breakthrough could contribute to improved market sentiment.
Ultimately, Ethereum's short-term turning points are the defense of $1,500 and the recovery of $1,800. If the $1,500 support level breaks, the potential reversal structure will be damaged, and a deeper decline could follow. Conversely, if it surpasses the $1,700 fair value gap and $1,800 resistance, the likelihood of a relief rally towards the $2,000-$2,200 range increases.
[Article Key Summary]
-Ethereum confirmed buying interest twice at the $1,500 support level, increasing the possibility of a double bottom formation.
-The recovery of the $1,800 resistance level was presented as a key criterion for determining the reliability of a short-term rebound.
-In the options market, call option dominance was observed, particularly around the December 2026 expiry, suggesting remaining mid-to-long-term bullish expectations.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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