Bitcoin (BTC) to Fall to $40,000 Range in October?...Expert: "Focusing Solely on Finding the Bottom is Risky"

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The debate over Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC)'s bottom has heated up again. It is argued that a more important issue than a short-term rebound is an accumulation strategy that reflects both the June-July lows and the possibility of a fall to the $40,000 range in October.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on June 20 (local time) that Bitcoin's bottom should be viewed through three scenarios. The first is a scenario where the bottom has already formed or is approaching in June-July. The second is a scenario that allows for a drop to the $40,000 range by October, according to the four-year cycle theory.

Gambardello considered the strategy of identifying accumulation zones to be more important than pinpointing the exact bottom. He explained that the key is to enter in stages during a significant downward trend, rather than focusing on whether the bottom is at $70,000, $60,000, $50,000, or $40,000. However, he emphasized that buying everything at once now does not align with his risk management principles.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization chart was also presented as a basis for the accumulation logic. Gambardello pointed out that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.18 trillion. He stated that the area around the 200-week exponential moving average was a bottom formation zone similar to the lows of 2018, the COVID-19 low in 2020, and the low in 2022. He also noted that bullish divergence is being maintained in the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Gambardello also cited his own risk indicator as a basis. The long-term risk score for the total cryptocurrency market capitalization was presented as 7. He explained that in the past, prices were higher both 3 months and 1 year after reaching that level. He added that altcoin market capitalization rose with an 85% probability after 3 months and a 100% probability after 1 year under the same conditions in the past.

However, the altcoin market was assessed to still be in the process of digesting its 2021 highs. Gambardello believes that if the expansion of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the potential end of the post-quantitative tightening decline coincide, cryptocurrencies could recover in line with the economic cycle. He concluded that a phased accumulation strategy is needed, which would be acceptable even if prices fall further or if a bull market begins immediately, rather than committing all funds to a specific low.

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