Benjamin Cowen "4-Year Cycle Not Broken"...Bitcoin Low Point Warning for Late 2026

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Halving/ChatGPT generated image

While the theory of Bitcoin's (BTC) 4-year cycle collapse spread, driven by ETF and Wall Street fund inflows, Benjamin Cowen argued that data, in fact, points to a potential low in late 2026.

In a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on May 26 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen analyzed that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle has not yet been broken. Cowen stated that the 4-year cycle is not a tool to predict specific prices, but rather a framework for identifying periods with a high probability of forming a low. He noted that major lows in the past were formed in late 2014 to early 2015, late 2018, and late 2022, and the next low could appear in late 2026.

Cowen explained that the Bitcoin spot ETF, corporate Bitcoin purchases, and the expectation of strategic Bitcoin reserves were key arguments for the 4-year cycle collapse theory, but Bitcoin ultimately formed a peak in the fourth quarter of the year following the halving, just like in the past. He compared the fourth quarters of 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025, emphasizing that the peak of this cycle, in terms of timing, has not significantly deviated from past patterns.

Regarding the argument that this peak occurred amidst indifference rather than overheating, as in the past, Cowen refuted that it is not a basis to deny a bear market. He cited the trends of the S&P 500 in the 1960s and 1970s as an example, explaining that even after peaks formed 11% to 15% higher than previous peaks, one or two-year bear markets followed. He also presented as evidence that an investor who bought the S&P 500 in 1965 saw only a 28% increase over eight years until 1973, but the market subsequently fell by nearly 50%.

Cowen also drew a line against the claim that this rebound is particularly strong. He compared this rebound, which is approximately 35% to 36% from the low, to the 2022 bear market rebound, which reached about 46%. He also pointed out that both in 2022 and the current cycle, there was first a 52% drop followed by a rebound, and in 2018, a similar pattern occurred where a higher low formed in late March to early April after the February low, and a rebound peak appeared in early May. He also noted that the current period of about 16 weeks without a new low is not significantly different from the past. He explained that in 2022, it took about 21 weeks to reach a new low; in 2018, 19 to 21 weeks; and in 2014, about 25 weeks.

Cowen also stated that Bitcoin's rebound to the 200-day moving average is not necessarily a signal of a renewed bull market. This is because in 2022, 2018, and 2014, Bitcoin also rebounded to or near the 200-day moving average, but the 4-year cycle bear market ultimately continued. He kept open the possibility of Bitcoin re-testing the $60,000 vicinity this year, mentioning a local low in June and a potential additional low around October. Cowen maintained his conclusion that the 4-year cycle is still alive, arguing that while the 4-year cycle may eventually break, Bitcoin has so far formed peaks at similar times to the past, and the bear market rebound pattern also resembles past trends.

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