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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image
Amidst Bitcoin (BTC) continuing its correction trend after reaching an all-time high, an analysis suggests that cycle indicators point to October 2026 as the next major inflection point.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on May 26 (local time), Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. The Fear & Greed Index has returned to the fear zone, and individual investor sentiment has also weakened.
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin may still be in the late stages of a bear market. According to the article, Bitcoin has shown a repetitive fractal cycle leading to accumulation, strong rallies, peak formation, several months of bear market progression, and then major bottom formation. The key warning in this analysis is that the cycle lows of 2018 and 2022 were formed only after the market believed it had already passed the worst.
A cryptocurrency analyst active on X (formerly Twitter) under the name Tice analyzed that major signals are converging on the same month. The signals presented by Tice include cycle timing, HODL wave analysis, on-chain bottom indicators, and historical drawdown patterns. This analysis suggests a structure where Bitcoin's next major bottom could form around October 2026.
The average length of past bear market correction periods was approximately 12 months. Calculating from the all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin's price could undergo an additional correction period of about 4 months before forming a bottom, with this timeline pointing to mid-October 2026.
However, the article noted that historical trends do not necessarily repeat perfectly. Some analyses suggested that Bitcoin needs to create a lower low before the end of the correction period, but explained that this does not necessarily mean it must fall below the low near $63,000 in early February 2026. While it's possible that a bottom has already formed, the correction timeline suggests that Bitcoin could remain in a sideways range until around October 2026, before the next major bull rally.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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