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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Dasol Ko
Amidst the Bitcoin (BTC) market falling into severe trading stagnation, with spot trading volume plummeting by over 80% from its peak, paradoxically, an analysis suggests that this trading cliff signals the end of a cruel bear market and is a precursor to an explosive rally that will break past $82,000. Although the market has frozen due to a massive outflow of investment funds caused by recent macroeconomic uncertainties, bullish traders in the derivatives market are still maintaining their upward bets, despite selling pressure being virtually exhausted, indicating that hidden energy for a price rebound is accumulating.
According to crypto media outlet Finbold on May 26 (local time), Bitcoin spot trading volume on major cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide has plummeted to its lowest level in approximately two years. An analysis of data from on-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that Binance, the world's largest exchange, saw its Bitcoin spot trading volume plunge by over 81% from its peak of $198.6 billion recorded in October 2025 to approximately $36.4 billion currently. During the same period, Gate.io's spot trading volume also decreased by 79.6%, and Bybit saw a 66% outflow of funds, clearly indicating a widespread market stagnation and slowdown not confined to specific platforms.
This extreme contraction in Bitcoin spot trading volume is the first since the bear market of July 2023, which experienced a severe downturn. The fundamental background for this trading cliff is attributed to the escalating global inflationary pressures triggered by the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran. With geopolitical risks and inflation concerns overlapping, market sentiment for risk-averse assets was maximized, leading many institutional and individual investors to exit the cryptocurrency market and move substantial funds into raw materials such as commodities or major index products in traditional stock markets.
However, experts interpret this sharp collapse in spot trading volume not merely as a sign of stagnation but as a complete exhaustion of selling pressure. This implies that as the supply of assets available for sale in the market has bottomed out, the offensive from bearish traders has rapidly weakened. In fact, after successfully rebounding from the bottoming phase of the long-term bear market formed between February and April, Bitcoin has been trading around the $76,660 mark (as reported by the media), continuously emitting signals of a potential trend reversal.
Historically, this phenomenon has been a very strong market turning point and a bottom signal. Darkpost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, emphasized that when the long-term bear market of 2023 ended, it was precisely after spot trading volume had completely collapsed to its lowest point. The historical empirical rule is that as soon as selling pressure in the market completely disappeared when trading volume was minimal, large-scale volatility returned, serving as a springboard for a successful reversal into a strong bullish trend.
Furthermore, the fact that Bitcoin's futures funding rates have consistently remained positive over the past two weeks on major exchanges, including Binance, further increases the likelihood of a future price surge. This is because long traders in the futures market, utilizing leverage, are maintaining their upward positions and bullish confidence even while paying costs. Ultimately, the diagnosis is that if such aggressive long forces in the derivatives market combine within an environment of minimal spot trading volume where selling pressure has disappeared, there is a high probability that a strong supply-shortage-driven rally will soon unfold, breaking past the $82,000 resistance level in one go.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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