XRP: Whale Transaction Volume Evaporates by 57% in 9 Days... Will it Drop to $1?

▲ XRP, Cryptocurrency Whale/AI Generated Image

An analysis suggests that large XRP whale transactions have plummeted by over 57% in just 9 days, indicating that the market has entered a compression phase ahead of significant price volatility. While large investor participation has decreased amid price weakness, some whale wallets have continued to accumulate during the downturn, increasing tension surrounding future direction.

According to TheCryptoBasic on May 25 (local time), market analyst Ali Martinez, citing Santiment data, stated that XRP whale transactions exceeding $1 million decreased from 157 cases nine days ago to 67 cases. This represents a sharp drop of 57.3%. XRP has fallen from its May 14 high of $1.54 to a recent $1.35, and large transactions have sharply contracted alongside this price correction.

From May 15 to May 19, XRP recorded its first five consecutive days of intraday declines in over two months. During this period, the price dropped by 8%, and as investor sentiment weakened, the participation of large investors also decreased. TheCryptoBasic reported that the decrease in whale activity is consistent with price weakness, suggesting that large investors are waiting for the price to stabilize within a narrow range rather than actively pushing the market upwards.

However, not all whales have withdrawn from the market. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP increased their holdings from 3.72 billion XRP to 3.79 billion XRP on May 12. The additional accumulation during this period amounted to 70 million XRP. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP also increased their holdings from 6.31 billion XRP to 6.33 billion XRP since May 16, adding 20 million XRP. However, TheCryptoBasic explained that this accumulation trend is not yet strong enough to move the price significantly.

Technical indicators also point to the possibility of strong volatility expansion. In a previous analysis, Martinez noted that the Bollinger Bands on XRP's 3-day chart were at their narrowest level in over a year. He analyzed that “XRP is on the verge of a significant price movement,” and when volatility is compressed so strongly, a sharp price expansion can occur once a direction is established.

The key range was presented as being between $1.50 and $1.29. Martinez viewed this range as a period to await a confirmed breakout rather than engaging in predictive trading. The analysis suggests that if XRP closes above $1.50 on the 3-day chart, a rise towards $1.80 is possible, but if it closes below $1.29, the bullish outlook weakens, and a drop to the psychological support level of $1 could occur. With the sharp decline in whale transactions coinciding with Bollinger Band compression, XRP has entered a volatility threshold that will determine its short-term direction.

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