XRP, 53% Surge Scenario Emerges That Will Decide Its Fate... "If $1.11 Breaks, $0.32; If It Holds, $11"

▲ XRP (XRP)/AI generated image

XRP has been under pressure, falling 11.6% over the past two weeks, but analysis suggests that a broadening falling wedge structure capable of rising to $11 is being maintained on the long-term chart. With short-term bearishness clashing with long-term breakout expectations, the market is simultaneously watching the $1.11 support level and the $3 resistance level.

According to TheCryptoBasic on May 25 (local time), market analyst EGRAG Crypto analyzed that XRP is currently moving within a broadening falling wedge pattern. EGRAG Crypto stated, “The recent correction is not a random price movement but an ongoing movement within a broadening falling wedge structure.”

A broadening falling wedge structure forms when the price moves in a declining manner between two diverging trendlines. The upper resistance line slopes downwards, and the lower support line descends more rapidly, widening the wedge. EGRAG Crypto explained, “A broadening falling wedge structure typically concludes with a sharp and sudden price rebound after a final steep decline.”

XRP began forming this structure on its monthly chart after being pushed down from a high of $3.4 in January 2025. It then fell to $1.61 in April 2025 before recovering above $3, and dropped again to $1.37 during a broad market decline on October 10, 2025. Earlier this year, it fell to $1.1, creating a lower low, and this repeated pattern of lower lows completed the steep lower trendline.

The key support level is $1.11. EGRAG Crypto identified $1.11, where buying pressure entered during the February 2026 plunge, as the most critical defense line. If this support level and the lower trendline of the wedge break, XRP could fall further to $0.32. This represents a 71% drop from the $1.11 support zone. EGRAG Crypto estimated the probability of this bearish scenario materializing from the current position at 43%.

The gateway for a bullish reversal is $3. EGRAG Crypto analyzed, “XRP must break through $3, which coincides with the upper trendline of the broadening falling wedge, to confirm a shift in bullish momentum.” He believed that if a breakout occurs, XRP's extended targets could open up to $7 to $11 or even higher, and he presented a 53% probability for this pattern to unfold towards $11.

Additional volatility warnings were attached to the short-term trend. EGRAG Crypto views the current phase as a bearish compression stage, suggesting that sideways movement, trader fatigue, and strong volatility events could precede a major move. Another analyst, Chart Nerd, pointed out that XRP has been trading near its 50-month exponential moving average for nearly four months, with that indicator currently around $1.30.

Chart Nerd analyzed, “XRP lost its 50-month exponential moving average during the 2019-2020 bear market and subsequently fell by 61%, and in 2022, it dropped below the same indicator again, falling by 48%.” He believed that a monthly close below that line could be an early warning sign of additional downward pressure. XRP is currently facing both the risk of falling to $0.32 and the scenario of rising to $11, caught between defending $1.11 and breaking through $3.

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