XRP Exchange Supply Plummets…Has Large-Scale Accumulation Begun?

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XRP (Ripple) has entered a critical turning point, with both record-high ETF fund inflows and a decrease in exchange supply occurring simultaneously despite a bearish chart pattern. While the market warns of a potential break below the $1 mark if $1.18 collapses, analysis suggests that a scenario of recovery to $1.80 is also open if institutional fund inflows continue.

According to investment media TradingNews on May 25 (local time), XRP is currently trading around $1.352 and has risen by approximately 0.91% in the last 24 hours. However, it fell about 4% last week, continuing a bearish trend for two consecutive weeks, and rebounded after dropping to $1.30 intraday on the 23rd. The media assessed that XRP is currently in a phase where large-scale whale accumulation, bearish technical patterns, regulatory tailwinds, and expectations for the launch of CME futures in the U.S. are clashing simultaneously.

Technically, the 'head and shoulders' pattern was identified as the biggest variable. The neckline on the 12-hour chart is formed at $1.18, and if this level collapses, an additional drop of approximately 18% could occur, pushing it down to $1.01. Subsequent support levels were suggested at $0.96. The media analyzed that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently maintains a negative trend, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 42, indicating a slowdown in buying pressure. Conversely, it added that if XRP recovers $1.55 and breaks above $1.60, the bearish pattern could be invalidated.

On the other hand, on-chain data sends the opposite signal. According to Glassnode data, the change in net exchange position expanded from -7.14 million XRP on the 15th to -29.37 million XRP on the 24th. This means the scale of exchange outflows surged by over 300% in just nine days. This is interpreted to mean that investors are moving XRP to personal wallets outside exchanges for long-term holding. Furthermore, according to SoSoValue, the cumulative net inflow into U.S. XRP spot ETFs in May exceeded $1.41 billion, recording the strongest institutional fund inflow trend this year.

Changes in the regulatory environment were also cited as a key factor supporting XRP investor sentiment. On the 14th, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, by a vote of 15 to 9. It is assessed that if this bill is finally passed, XRP's commodity classification will be explicitly stated in federal law, significantly resolving regulatory uncertainty. Additionally, institutional investor accessibility is expected to expand with the launch of 24-hour XRP futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on the 29th. The media reported that the tokenization of real-world assets based on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has exceeded $3 billion, and global corporate collaborations, including Japan's Rakuten Wallet and Korea's Kyobo Life Insurance, are also expanding.

However, the possibility of increased short-term volatility remains. The movement of approximately 250 million XRP from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen's associated wallets since last year, and the scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow on June 1, are cited as burden factors. The media assessed that while XRP is technically bearish, its medium to long-term structure remains positive given the simultaneous influx of ETF funds, regulatory tailwinds, and increased exchange outflows. In particular, it analyzed that the future direction will be determined by whether the $1.18 support level and the $1.55 resistance level are broken.

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