Solana, Down 72% from its Peak, But Could Reach Up to '$800'...Will ETFs and Upgrades Turn the Tide?

▲ Solana (SOL)

Amid Solana (SOL) losing key support levels and falling to the $82 mark, a long-term forecast suggests it could rise to between $650 and $800.

24/7 Wall Street reported on May 24 (local time) that while Solana is currently pressured by short-term risk-off sentiment, it could enter a long-term upward trend if coupled with ETF inflows, network upgrades, and the introduction of real-world assets. Solana has been trading around the $82 mark since breaking below the $90 support level on May 15. This is approximately 72% lower than its all-time high of $294. Analysis also suggests that the recent bearish trend could present a new buying opportunity for small and medium-sized investors who were unable to enter above the $200 range previously.

Solana's past five years have been characterized by repeated surges and sharp declines. In 2021, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and an influx of retail investors, it surged over 11,000% to $259, gaining attention as an alternative to Ethereum. However, in 2022, due to frequent network outages and the aftermath of the Terra-Luna crisis, it plunged 28% in Q1 and 72.7% in Q2. By the end of the same year, the massive forced liquidation selling pressure following the FTX bankruptcy further compounded its woes, leading to a 94% drop from its peak, with the price falling below $10.

Subsequently, Solana successfully rebounded, rising 918% in 2023 and 85% in 2024. Its USDC settlement partnership with global payment company Visa and the memecoin craze fueled an expansion in trading volume. Decentralized exchange trading volume reached $626 billion, approaching Ethereum's $674 billion. Immediately after the Bitcoin halving, on January 19, 2025, it set a new all-time high of $294, but then underwent corrections of 36% in February and 15.7% in March, ending the year at $124. Entering 2026, it recorded further declines of 33.3% in Q1 and 1% in Q2 due to macroeconomic slowdown, but network activity and ecosystem development continue to show improvement.

Over the next five years, Solana's success is analyzed to depend on the recovery of risk asset investment sentiment, the implementation of scheduled upgrades, and the increased real-world utility for retail investors. By the end of 2026, forecasts suggest it could recover to between $180 and $220, driven by the launch of the Alpenglow upgrade mainnet and ETF inflows. In 2027, through expanded payment partnerships and user adoption, it is expected to recover to the $280-$350 range, and around the 2028 halving, a scenario suggests it could form new highs of $450 to $600 with increased liquidity provision.

However, in 2029, a cooling-off period is anticipated, with profit-taking after the peak and technical adjustment pressures post-halving combining to push the price down to the $250-$350 range. During this period, speculative capital is expected to exit, and actual application usability and network fees are projected to act as key factors supporting the price floor. Subsequently, in 2030, with the full-scale integration of blockchain and institutional finance, there is a possibility of a rebound to the $400-$520 range. For this to happen, the trend of global financial institutions directly tokenizing real-world assets like government bonds or private credit on the Solana ledger must become mainstream in the market.

By 2031, the culmination of the long-term outlook, analysis suggests Solana could establish itself as a financial platform handling institutional-grade large-scale payments and tokenized assets. This is predicated on real economic value surpassing the $1.1 trillion in on-chain economic activity recorded in Q1 2026, supporting network growth. If this scenario materializes, Solana could grow by up to 875% from its current price, reaching its final target range of $650 to $800.

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