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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency crash/AI generated image
A pattern similar to the 2022 bear market has been detected in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, raising concerns about further crashes.
24/7 Wall Street reported on May 24 (local time) that the Bitcoin chart showed a trend that seemed to replicate the bear flag structure that triggered past large-scale liquidations, putting the asset management strategy of Strategy, which holds a large amount of Bitcoin, to the test. Analysts warned that if a downward breakout is confirmed in the current range, Bitcoin prices could fall to $40,000 or even lower.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ran Neuner appeared on a podcast and analyzed that the current Bitcoin price trend aligns with the trajectory of the serial crashes in 2022. Neuner recalled that during the 2022 bear market, a bear flag formed after the first crash, and a deeper sell-off of 62% occurred in the second downtrend. He explained that Bitcoin is currently pushed back into the bear flag pattern after touching the 200-day moving average, and the possibility of a severe recession, similar to the past Luna incident and FTX bankruptcy, cannot be ruled out.
Currently, Bitcoin continues its weakness, hovering around $76,600.87, a 29% drop from its all-time high of $107,794.01. In the market, bets predicting a downward breach of the $75,000 support level in May have already been successful, making downward pressure tangible. Podcast host Scott Melker also agreed that if the support level breaks, the short-term target price could be adjusted downward to the $40,000 to $50,000 range, sounding an alarm against market optimism.
This asset price adjustment is directly pressuring Strategy, which has been accumulating large amounts of Bitcoin. Strategy holds a total of 713,502 BTC with an acquisition cost of approximately $54.26 billion, but has already recorded a net loss of $12.44 billion due to digital asset impairment in Q4 2025. As a result, the company's stock price plummeted 60% from its high of $399.46 to $159.89, and investor sentiment rapidly deteriorated, with discussions about buying put options betting on stock price declines surging on investor communities like Reddit.
Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket indicate a 79% probability that Strategy will sell some of its Bitcoin holdings before December 31, 2026. Although the likelihood of the company experiencing a margin call was assessed as low at 4.5%, the market believes that even without forced liquidation, there is constant pressure for asset sales based on management's autonomous judgment. Market attention is focused on Strategy's future actions, given that CEO Phong Le has adhered to an aggressive financial strategy, raising $25.3 billion in funds throughout 2025 and making an additional surprise purchase of 41,002 BTC in January 2026.
Ultimately, if Bitcoin fails to break the current bear flag pattern and rebound, there is a high risk of it replicating past recessionary structures. Whether Strategy can withstand without selling assets is directly linked to Bitcoin's defense of the 200-day moving average. If the downward support level breaks, a general market position readjustment is expected to be inevitable, following the historical precedent of the second downward wave proceeding deeper.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and is not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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