Bitcoin, Hasn't It Even Found Its Bottom Yet...? "I Thought It Was a Rebound, But It Lacks Strength"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) recently showed signs of stabilizing in the mid-$70,000 range, but an analysis suggests that it remains trapped in a bearish transition zone within higher time frames. The downward trend that began after being rejected near $125,000 has continued, and the fact that it has consistently remained below key moving averages has been identified as a burden.

U.Today analyzed on May 23 (local time) that Bitcoin's chart shows a stronger structural weakness rather than a short-term rebound. The key resistance level is currently the 200-day moving average, located in the early $80,000s. Bitcoin's upward momentum has been cut short before regaining this level during every major rebound seen since its collapse.

The current price is showing a compressed movement between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, hovering around $76,000 and $78,000. However, the upward momentum is not significant. Especially when compared to previous sell-off phases, the trading volume has significantly decreased, interpreted as a sign that buying pressure has not yet actively intervened.

The chart structure is assessed to be closer to a relief consolidation rather than a decisive reversal. Bitcoin has created a higher low after dropping to around $65,000, but a clear breakout candle accompanied by high trading volume has not yet appeared. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains near the neutral line of 50, indicating a lack of direction. While the bulls have not taken control, the bears have not completely dominated the market either.

The most crucial hurdle remains the 200-day moving average, which is still overhead. Until Bitcoin forms a close above this level and confirms support, the overall trend remains vulnerable to another resistance. An analysis suggests that if the price loses the $76,000 to $78,000 range where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converge, it could revert to the early $70,000s or late $60,000s.

Conversely, if the price consistently maintains a close above $78,000 to $80,000, the market structure could change significantly. In this scenario, the likelihood of a longer recovery phase increases. However, based solely on the current chart, Bitcoin is assessed to be closer to an asset attempting to confirm a bottom after a major correction, rather than one entering a clear expansion phase.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*