Dogecoin, Warning of Re-drop to April Low... If $0.1 Breaks, Back to the Abyss?

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin (DOGE) attempted to recover from the bottom range formed between February and April, but analysis suggests it remains trapped within a larger bearish structure. Rejection near $0.30 led to a continued downtrend, and the inability to reclaim key resistance levels on higher time frames was identified as a burden.

According to U.Today on May 23 (local time), Dogecoin partially recovered some short-term moving averages and briefly broke above the 100-day moving average near $0.11, but the upward momentum quickly stalled. The current price is trapped between thick overhead resistance near $0.11-$0.12 and a short-term support zone around $0.10.

The blue uptrend line extending from the April low is still technically holding. Therefore, the uptrend has a structural basis to claim further recovery. However, the problem is insufficient momentum. During the bounce, trading volume expansion was not strong enough to indicate aggressive accumulation, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cooled down to the neutral zone after approaching the overbought territory in early May.

Dogecoin also remains below the 200-day moving average, located around $0.125. This moving average has acted as a macro trend resistance for several months. Analysis suggests it is difficult to consider the overall trend bullish until the price definitively reclaims the 200-day moving average.

However, some positive changes have appeared within the chart. After the sharp decline in February, the price did not continue to make lower lows but instead formed a rounded bottom pattern throughout March and April. The bounce above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages was also considered a significant structural improvement seen in several months.

Nevertheless, the recent pushback near resistance was interpreted as a sign that buying pressure might not be strong enough to force a breakout. If Dogecoin holds the $0.10 zone and climbs back above $0.11 with increased trading volume, there is room for recovery up to the 200-day moving average and around $0.13. Conversely, if it loses the upward support line, the market becomes vulnerable to retesting the April lows, increasing the likelihood of a larger downtrend resuming.

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