Samson Mow: "Bitcoin $1 million is not a bluff"...Not the end of the cycle, but the beginning of 'stockout'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and a well-known Bitcoin (BTC) bull, has once again brought up his forecast of Bitcoin reaching $1 million. He argued, "The buying pressure from large institutions and corporations is rapidly absorbing the actually available supply," adding, "The market is underestimating the possibility of a Bitcoin supply shortage."

CCN reported on May 21 (local time) that Mow reiterated the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million and the emergence of what he calls the Omega candle. The Omega candle is an expression Mow uses to describe a strong price surge phase, and he believes the current market has entered a period that cannot be easily explained by the traditional 4-year cycle alone.

Mow cited that Bitcoin had already reached an all-time high before the halving, and unlike past cycles, clear overheating signals did not appear after the peak. While some investors interpret this trend as a sign of the cycle ending, Mow argued that it could instead be an early stage where supply shortages are becoming full-blown.

Mow stated, "Everything is fluid right now," adding, "Buying pressure from Michael Saylor's Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury strategy companies is pouring into the market." He emphasized, "The Omega candle and $1 million Bitcoin could be closer than people think."

He presented Bitcoin's limited supply structure as a core rationale. The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million BTC, with less than 1 million BTC remaining to be mined. Mow believes that large buyers are consistently absorbing Bitcoin regardless of price, meaning the actual sellable supply in the market is less than investors perceive.

Mow also drew a line at the interpretation that the Bitcoin volume visible on exchanges is immediately available for sale. He stated, "Many people think there are 2 million to 3 million BTC on exchanges as sell-side liquidity, but a significant portion of that is liquidity held by market makers or hedge funds for other activities." He added, "That volume is not simply coins that will be sold and not bought back."

Mow also assessed Bitcoin's fair value as higher than current market perception. Citing inflation adjustments and the stock-to-flow model, he said, "Prices below $120,000, even below $110,000, are lower than the fair market value." He argues that even reflecting dollar inflation over recent years, Bitcoin's appropriate price is at least around $110,000.

The $1 million Bitcoin forecast is not limited to Mow's claims alone. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market in the long term. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, also maintains her target price of $1.2 million for Bitcoin by 2030.

However, the gap between the $1 million forecast and actual market conditions remains significant. For Bitcoin to reach $1 million, it would need to increase more than tenfold from its current level. CCN reported that whether institutional buying will lead to a reduction in actual circulating supply, and how much the supply shortage logic will be reflected in the price, will be key points to watch in the future market.

Bitcoin bulls believe that continuous accumulation by corporations and institutions can lead to long-term gains. Conversely, macroeconomic environments and changes in risk asset preferences still significantly impact short-term price movements. Mow's claims have once again brought the $1 million forecast to the forefront of the market, focusing on Bitcoin's supply structure and institutional buying pressure.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*