Risk Assets Strengthen on Hopes of US-Iran Negotiations…Can Bitcoin Re-Break $80,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Nasdaq (NASDAQ)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $77,000 level, and the cryptocurrency market continued its strong but stable trend, but investor sentiment remains in the 'fear' zone, and a period of searching for direction continues.

According to CoinMarketCap data as of May 22, 6:16 AM, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 0.37% from the previous day to $2.59 trillion. Bitcoin traded at $77,716, up 0.05% over 24 hours, and Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.05% to $2,136. In contrast, XRP (Ripple) fell by 8.04% over 7 days to $1.37, and Dogecoin (DOGE) also dropped by 8.80% during the same period, continuing the altcoin bearish trend. The Fear & Greed Index remained in the 'fear' zone, close to 'neutral,' at 41, and the Altcoin Season Index stayed at 38.

The expectation of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran is cited as the reason the market maintained its strong but stable trend. The New York stock market closed uniformly higher the previous day, bolstered by falling international oil prices and stable US Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.55%, hitting an all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also increased by 0.17% and 0.09%, respectively. The market views the potential easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East as having partially restored risk asset preference.

In particular, the turnaround in international oil prices to a downward trend is analyzed to have positively impacted the cryptocurrency market. July Brent crude fell by 2.32% to $102.58 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also dropped by 1.94% to $96.35. The US 10-year Treasury yield also fell to 4.55%, somewhat easing the burden of tightening. The market interprets these macro environmental changes as short-term rebound catalysts, given that Bitcoin and tech stocks have recently reacted sensitively to interest rate and liquidity trends.

However, internal market trends remain mixed. Hyperliquid (HYPE) surged by 10.51% over 24 hours and 31.56% over 7 days, continuing strong capital inflows, but most altcoins could not escape the bearish trend. Solana (SOL) fell by 5.63% weekly, and Ethereum also dropped by 6.85%. It is assessed that a 'selective market' is continuing, where liquidity is concentrated only on certain thematic assets while Bitcoin's dominance is maintained.

Moving forward, the market's direction is highly likely to be determined by US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and the news flow from US-Iran negotiations. The market believes that if Bitcoin maintains its $76,000 support level, an attempt to re-break $80,000 is possible, but simultaneously, caution is growing that volatility could expand again if geopolitical risks re-escalate or hawkish Fed remarks emerge.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*