XRP, why isn't it rising despite a flood of good news... Was the real problem the chart?

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image ©

XRP (Ripple) ultimately failed to break through $1.55 despite expectations for the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, and a spot XRP ETF in Japan, putting it under pressure to break down key support levels again.

According to investment media outlet TradingNews on May 21 (local time), XRP has fallen by 8.42% over the past seven days, trading in the $1.36-$1.37 range. The outlet analyzed that the surge to $1.55 on May 15 concluded as a typical 'fake breakout'. At that time, XRP raised bullish expectations due to breaking out of a descending channel, maintaining the 100-day moving average, and an upward trend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but ultimately failed to settle above the breakout on a daily basis and was pushed back down to the bottom of the $1.34-$1.37 box range.

The outlet identified the 200-day moving average at $1.4238 as the key turning point for this decline. Currently, XRP is trading below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the $1.40-$1.42 range has turned into a strong resistance zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a clear bearish signal on a weekly basis, and the RSI also dropped to around 42. The Average Directional Index (ADX) suggested a weak directional trend, but the outlet assessed that “even if a weak rebound occurs, it is highly likely to be suppressed by selling pressure again.” It added that the resistance level based on the Ichimoku Cloud is also formed at $1.4477.

In the market, expectations for the passage of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (Clarity Act), SBI Holdings' application for a spot XRP ETF in Japan, and the Donald Trump administration's executive order related to digital asset payment infrastructure were cited as positive factors, but the price reaction did not last long. The outlet diagnosed, “Bullish catalysts continue to emerge, but the chart is not reflecting them.” In particular, Goldman Sachs liquidating approximately $154 million worth of XRP ETF positions was also mentioned as a factor worsening institutional sentiment. On the other hand, long-term whale wallets are still accumulating, with approximately 7 billion XRP moved off exchanges since February 2025.

The bearish trend against Bitcoin was also clear. The XRP/BTC ratio failed to break above 1,800 satoshis and fell back to around 1,770 satoshis, leading to an analysis that funds are concentrating on large-cap assets as Bitcoin's dominance approaches 60%. At the same time, the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields, a strong dollar, oil price instability due to Middle East risks, and the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are also burdening risk assets across the board, including XRP, the outlet explained. In particular, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to be released this week was identified as a key variable determining short-term direction.

The outlet predicted that if XRP breaks below $1.35 on a daily basis, further declines to $1.30 and then $1.20 could open up. Conversely, if it recovers and settles above $1.4238, an attempt to re-break $1.50-$1.55 is possible. However, the current market is in a state where “there is abundant good news, but the price is not reacting,” and a conservative approach is needed in the short term.

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