Bitcoin held onto $76,000... Is the real crisis starting now?

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Bitcoin (BTC) barely held onto the $76,000 support level, but market anxiety is growing due to the combination of over $1 billion in Bitcoin spot ETF outflows and the longest-ever period of short-selling dominance.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 21 (local time), Bitcoin has defended the $76,000 level twice recently and is now consolidating between $77,000 and $78,000. The outlet diagnosed that $78,000 currently acts as a short-term resistance level, and $80,000 is a key turning point. In particular, it analyzed that attempts to break above $82,000 failed all seven times over the past three weeks, and the 200-day moving average has not yet been recovered.

Exacerbating the market sentiment is the institutional capital flow. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a total net outflow of $1.05 billion over the past four trading days. On a daily basis, $648 million and $331 million flowed out successively, with outflows continuing thereafter. The outlet assessed that the rebound confidence would be limited unless the capital flows for BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity FBTC, and Grayscale GBTC turn back into net inflows. Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs also showed a bearish trend with over $500 million in cumulative outflows over the past nine trading days.

Stronger warning signals are appearing in the derivatives market. Bitcoin futures funding rates have been negative for 82 consecutive days, marking the longest period of short-selling dominance. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures basis also dropped below 2.5%, leading to an analysis that institutional investors' risk aversion sentiment has increased. Open interest has stagnated at $36.6 billion to $37.8 billion, and in the options market, more than 90% of the total premium was concentrated in put options for downside protection. In particular, a large number of option positions were concentrated around the $75,000 level, raising the possibility of a further sharp decline if that price is breached.

Technical indicators also show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained below neutral at 48, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still showed a bearish trend below the 0 line. However, the outlet explained that the $76,000 support level was maintained twice, and decreasing trading volume during declines suggests the possibility of a short-term bottom formation. Simultaneously, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 24, entering the 'extreme fear' zone. In the market, future US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price data is attracting attention as a key variable that will determine Bitcoin's direction.

Macroeconomic variables are also a burden. The hawkish stance was reconfirmed in the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the market is pricing in a 62% probability of a rate hike within the year. The US 10-year Treasury yield is moving in the 4.6% range, and a strong dollar and international oil price volatility were also cited as factors pressing risk asset sentiment. However, the outlet evaluated that the disclosure of SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings, amounting to 18,712 BTC, is a positive factor in terms of long-term institutional adoption. It further predicted that if Bitcoin recovers $78,300 and $80,000, it could open up to $92,000-$95,000, but conversely, if $76,000 breaks, downward pressure could increase to the $71,000 level.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*