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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Crash/ChatGPT Generated Image ©
A grim technical warning has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC), which is replicating historical patterns, will soon face an unavoidable massive crash.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on May 21 (local time), renowned virtual asset analyst Merlijn The Trader stated via social media X that the current price movement of Bitcoin strikingly matches the market cycle of 2021. Based on past weekly candlestick charts, he defined Bitcoin's cycle into a total of six stages: distribution, minor adjustment, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, and final rally, presenting the 'Bitcoin Script' and drawing significant market attention.
According to the report, after Bitcoin broke its all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025, it has consistently maintained a bearish trend and has already completed Stage 1, the distribution phase. Following a minor adjustment, it has now completed Stage 3, the redistribution process, which began in late January this year. The most crucial turning point in the technical analysis model presented by the expert is the upcoming Stage 4, which signifies not an immediate upward rally as the market expects, but a massive crash, plunging to a much deeper bottom than before.
The technical structure currently predicts that the next downward destination, or accumulation zone, is estimated to be between a minimum of $45,000 and a maximum of $59,000. Considering that Bitcoin is trading around $77,500 at the time of the report, a retreat to $59,000 would mean an evaporation of approximately 23.8% of asset value from the current price, and if it plunges to the worst-case scenario of $45,000, a terrifying crash of up to 42% could unfold.
However, the key to completely neutralizing this dreadful scenario lies in whether the $78,000 level can be defended. The analyst explained that if Bitcoin firmly holds the $78,000 level and manages to close above this price range on a weekly basis for several weeks, it could skip the feared Stage 4 and proceed directly to Stage 5, re-accumulation, and a final parabolic rally. However, given that the $77,000 level was already breached once on May 18, the current $78,000 defense line is under very strong downward pressure, indicating a precarious situation.
Consequently, the direction of this cycle boils down to a battle: will Bitcoin break through the $78,000 barrier, which has turned into a strong resistance level, and move upwards, or will it confirm a brutal bottom of $45,000 with the collapse of support? Investors should closely watch the closing market conditions this coming weekend and prepare for the direction of this massive technical turning point.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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