Bitcoin Moving with Gold, When's the Next All-Time High?..."Focus on April-December Next Year"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Gold/AI Generated Image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach its next all-time high between April and December 2027, following a repetitive price pattern with gold. Bitcoin author Adam Livingston assessed that the BTC/XAU ratio, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold, has repeated a similar cycle structure since 2017.

According to The Crypto Basic on May 20 (local time), Livingston explained that the BTC/XAU ratio has repeatedly shown a pattern where it rises during Bitcoin's bull market, followed by gold showing a stronger trend than Bitcoin for about 14 months. He observed that after the ratio hit a low, Bitcoin broke its all-time high against the dollar twice, and the third repetition is currently underway.

The first instance was the 2017 cycle. Bitcoin showed strength against gold for about two years from January 2015, and by December 2017, the BTC/XAU ratio rose to 16 ounces of gold per 1 BTC. Subsequently, as gold became stronger than Bitcoin, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped to 3 ounces of gold by January 2019. During this period, gold outperformed Bitcoin for 416 days.

The same trend appeared in the next cycle. After hitting a low of 3 ounces of gold in January 2019, Bitcoin recovered, and by October 2021, the BTC/XAU ratio increased to 37 ounces of gold. After that, gold again outperformed Bitcoin, and by January 2023, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped to 9 ounces of gold. This period lasted 440 days.

The current cycle also showed a similar structure, according to the analysis. Bitcoin showed a stronger trend than gold after its January 2023 low, reaching a new high of 41 ounces of gold per 1 BTC in December 2024. Subsequently, gold again outperformed Bitcoin, and by February 2026, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped to 12 ounces of gold. Livingston explained that after this correction period of 433 days, Bitcoin began to show strength against gold again.

Livingston also noted the timing when Bitcoin reached its all-time high against the dollar after past BTC/XAU lows. Bitcoin recorded new all-time highs 711 days after its 2019 low and 469 days after its 2023 low. Applying the average of these two recovery periods, 590 days, the calculation suggests that the next all-time high after the February 2026 low could occur between April and December 2027.

However, the magnitude of recovery is decreasing with each cycle. Bitcoin needed a 500% increase to surpass its all-time high after the 2018 low, and a 328% increase after the 2022 low. Based on the February 2026 low of $64,049, only a 95% increase is needed to reach a new all-time high. Livingston argues that as Bitcoin's monetary base strengthens over time, the recovery movement becomes easier with each cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*