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▲ Michael Saylor, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image
An analysis suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) market is shifting to a structure more strongly influenced by Strategy's repeated buying, ETF demand, and the proliferation of institutional products, rather than past cycles centered on halving.
Cryptocurrency expert Scott Melker stated on May 15 (local time) through the crypto-specialized podcast The Lark Davis Show that Michael Saylor is not merely predicting Bitcoin at $1 million, but rather designing that trend through Strategy's financial products and buying structure. Melker explained that Saylor views Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate at approximately 30% over the next 10 years, seeing greater long-term upside potential for Bitcoin compared to the average annual returns of QQQ and Nasdaq, which are around 15%.
The core point Melker focused on is the repetitive buying structure through STRC. He analyzed that STRC recently surpassed $100, and investors are observing STRC demand in real-time, preemptively reflecting Saylor's Bitcoin purchases. Melker said, “If you look at the STRC dashboard, you can see Saylor's Bitcoin demand in real-time,” adding, “Who wouldn't want to get ahead of that trend?” He explained that if STRC's popularity continues, a self-fulfilling flywheel could form, where expectations for Bitcoin purchases stimulate STRC demand again.
Melker believes that once the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval process is complete, STRC could operate as a more efficient Bitcoin buying mechanism. He mentioned that Saylor could purchase $2 billion to $3 billion worth of Bitcoin over several days around the 15th, and thereafter, a bi-monthly repetitive buying structure could be established. He argues that if a structure is formed where a specific entity continuously injects billions of dollars each month into a limited-supply asset, repetitive buying and ETF demand could have a greater impact on the price than halving events.
Regarding Saylor's statement that he might sell some Bitcoin in the future, Melker interpreted it differently from the market's excessive concerns. Melker explained that since STRC is issued in the market as a security and Bitcoin serves as collateral, it's a structure where Saylor cannot say, “I will never sell.” He added that it is necessary to inform the market and the SEC that collateralized Bitcoin may be sold to protect individual investors if STRC loses its face value or encounters issues with dividend payments.
Melker expressed skepticism about the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory. Melker pointed out that spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the middle of the existing cycle, an all-time high was reached earlier than expected, and the large altcoin bull runs that repeatedly occurred in past cycles have not properly materialized. While acknowledging the long-term significance of halving and limited supply structures, he assessed that the direct variables currently driving market prices are liquidity, ETFs, and institutional capital flows, rather than halving.
From an investment strategy perspective, Melker stated that a Bitcoin-centric regular purchase strategy, combined with holding Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), is realistic. He likened the strategy of holding large Layer 1 assets to buying an index in the stock market, suggesting that focusing on core assets that have attracted institutional interest is better in terms of risk-adjusted returns than searching for 100x or 1,000x coins. He assessed that the Bitcoin market is being reshaped into a repetitive buying structure combining Saylor's STRC structure, ETFs, and institutional product demand, and selective access centered on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana has become more important in the altcoin market.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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