Bitcoin, thought it would recover from $80,000... will it be blocked again after all?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break above $82,000 three times, making selling pressure from short-term holders a key variable hindering its upward trend.

According to NewsBTC on May 15 (local time), on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a recent market briefing that Bitcoin attempted to reach around $82,100 three times since April 2026 but was pushed back each time. Adler pointed out that Bitcoin is trapped between the realized cost basis of short-term holders and the 200-day simple moving average, and with each rebound, recent buyers are opting to sell rather than increase their holdings.

Adler stated, “The price is trapped between the realized cost basis of short-term holders and the 200-day simple moving average, and every rebound is met with the same reaction. Short-term holders are using the bullish momentum as an opportunity to liquidate, preventing further upside in the market.” He explained that this pattern is not merely technical resistance but a pressure structure combined with investor behavior.

The key resistance level presented by Adler is $82,100. This price was presented as the 200-day simple moving average and the upper boundary of the current resistance zone. At the lower end, $77,900, which is the realized price for short-term holders (1 week to 1 month), was mentioned as a major support level. Accordingly, Bitcoin is being tested for direction within a narrow range of approximately $4,200.

NewsBTC reported that no abnormal surge in trading volume was observed when Bitcoin attempted to break above $82,100. Adler believes that buying pressure was not strong enough to absorb the supply coming from the resistance zone. He stated, “As long as the price remains below $82,100, the resistance structure remains. Confirmation of a regime change requires a daily close confidently above the 200-day simple moving average and an increase in trading volume.”

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) was also presented as an indicator of market pressure. This indicator tracks whether recently moved coins were sold at a profit or a loss. Adler explained that while the short-term holder SOPR recovered from an extreme low in February 2026, it failed to stably cross the 1.0 baseline. He said, “Every time the price attempts to rise, the indicator briefly approaches 1.0 and then quickly falls again. This means that short-term holders are using rebounds as liquidation opportunities rather than waiting for further upside.”

Adler presented three conditions for a bullish reversal: a clear daily close above $82,100, an increase in trading volume, and the 7-day moving average of the short-term holder SOPR remaining above 1.0 for several days. If these conditions are not met, the market will remain in a cautious neutral zone, and a fourth rejection from the same resistance zone increases the likelihood of retesting the $77,900 support level. If this support level breaks, lower support zones will once again come into market focus.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*