Bitcoin, falling back to the $70,000 range?..."Risk assets sold off as US Treasury yields break 4.55%"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As instability in US Treasury yields shook risk assets across the board, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000, and the market began to re-price in the possibility of retesting May lows.

According to Cointelegraph on May 15 (local time), Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 with the opening of the US stock market on Friday. Based on TradingView data, Bitcoin fell 3% in one day, and the decline deepened after the US market opened. Bitcoin approached its lowest price range since May, and the stock market also gave back its gains after reaching an all-time high during the week.

The direct variable that fueled market anxiety was US Treasury yields. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter stated via X (formerly Twitter) that “the bond market crisis is deepening. US 10-year Treasury yields officially surpassed 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.” It added, “After weeks of cheering, the market has started reacting today. As we've said for weeks, the current bond market situation is not sustainable.”

The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the 10-year Treasury yield is now higher than when US President Donald Trump halted tariffs on China in April 2025. It explained that the tariff suspension at the time was a measure related to the collapsing bond market. The Kobeissi Letter stated, “The market now sees a greater than 60% chance that the Federal Reserve's next move will be a rate hike, and rate cuts have completely disappeared from pricing.”

CME Group's FedWatch data also presented a 0.25% interest rate hike by March 2027 as the most likely scenario. The Kobeissi Letter stated, “We expect to see mortgage rates above 7% next. Auto loan delinquency rates have reached a 32-year high. Inflation is back, and higher interest rates are coming.”

In the Bitcoin market, skepticism was already growing regarding the possibility of breaking through the $82,000 mark. Cointelegraph reported that a retest of support levels was expected, and the downside target for the day expanded to the mid-$70,000s. Trader Pat said, “The fact that Bitcoin completely reversed yesterday’s move is frankly not a good sign.”

The possibility of continued range-bound trading was also raised. Analyst Eric Coleman explained that Bitcoin rebounded as expected from the marked horizontal support but was rejected again below the trendline and horizontal resistance. Coleman stated, “Further movement between horizontal support and resistance is expected until a definitive breakout or breakdown occurs.” Bitcoin is being tested on whether it can defend its May lows amidst bond yield shocks and weakening support.

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