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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) has not been able to enter a strong breakout phase above $80,000. Cointelegraph reported on May 14 (local time) that capital inflows into the Bitcoin market remain lower than in past bull market breakout phases, and futures market investors are also showing caution.
According to Glassnode's weekly on-chain report, Bitcoin's 30-day realized cap net position change recently rose to $2.8 billion per month. This metric tracks the amount of new capital flowing into the Bitcoin market over a 30-day period.
Positive capital flows helped Bitcoin recover from its April low near $65,000. However, compared to previous breakout phases seen during the bull run from 2023 to 2025, the volume of capital rotation was much smaller. Cointelegraph reported that the slower pace of funds entering the market this year has raised questions about whether Bitcoin can rise above the $80,000-$82,000 range.
Upward selling pressure was also presented as a variable. Glassnode analyzed that a large cluster of holders is growing around $86,900. These are investors who bought Bitcoin between November last year and February this year, and they are now approaching their break-even point. If investors who have experienced long-term losses start selling near their entry prices, a large upper supply zone could form, hindering Bitcoin's upward momentum.
On the other hand, short-term buyers are supporting the market around $76,900. This price point represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin purchased over the past 30 days. This suggests that while upper supply is concentrated near $87,000, new demand is still flowing in at lower price levels.
Strong bullish bets have not yet been confirmed in the futures market either. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. analyzed that buying activity in the spot and futures markets began to cool after Bitcoin recently rose above $80,000. The 30-day net taker volume metric rose to +2.0 on May 6 but fell to +1.25 on Wednesday. This indicator shows which side, buyers or sellers, is dominating the market.
Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's buying pressure has decreased by about 35% compared to last week. This means that investors are acting less aggressively than before while Bitcoin is trading around $80,000. He explained that in the past, when this indicator adjusted to around +0.3, price movements often slowed down or consolidated.
Bitcoin's 30-day funding rate has also remained in negative territory since March. A negative funding rate means that short position holders are paying long position holders, which is interpreted as a sign that bearish bets still dominate the futures market. Adler Jr. believes that a trend where the funding rate rises back above zero could be the first sign of a recovery in bullish positions.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also diagnosed that capital flows need to strengthen for Bitcoin to enter a larger bull market. Wedson explained that the realized cap impulse metric, which tracks whether new capital is entering the Bitcoin market, is still slightly below zero. He analyzed that this indicator needs to rise back above zero to signal that investors are injecting new capital into Bitcoin.
Although Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, the scale of capital inflows and futures market positions are not yet at a level to support a strong breakout. Cointelegraph reported that for further upward movement above the $80,000-$82,000 range, an increase in new capital inflows and a recovery in bullish positions in the futures market are necessary.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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