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Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a rebound, touching the $76,000 mark, but on-chain data shows 'distribution risk,' a sign of whales offloading large quantities, leading to warnings that it might only be a temporary rebound in a bear market.
According to the investment media FXLeaders on May 14 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing strong selling pressure around $76,800, which has acted as a powerful resistance line in the bear market, known as the 'trader realized price.' CryptoQuant, a virtual asset data analytics firm, reported that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges recently surged to 11,000 BTC per hour, marking the highest level since last December. In particular, the sharp increase in the proportion of large deposits within the total inflow, from less than 10% to over 40% in just a few days, suggests that institutional investors are ready to sell near the resistance line.
Indeed, the movement of whales is unusual. The average deposit size is 2.25 BTC, the highest since July 2024, and transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC by whales are continuously flowing into major exchanges like Binance. This is interpreted not as a retail investor-led trend, but rather as large funds and big players adjusting their positions for a full-scale exit (capital withdrawal). Last Wednesday, daily realized profit reached $500 million, which is still below the $1 billion threshold for full-scale profit-taking, indicating that current profit realization activities are in their early stages.
Experts predict that the moment Bitcoin surpasses the $76,800 resistance line, realized profits will exceed $1 billion, triggering a strong sell-off. This is because holders who purchased between $65,000 and $76,000 are now in profit, and their desire to realize gains is at its peak. Already since the last quarter, spot ETF capital flows have turned to net selling, and even 'dolphins,' medium-to-large wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC, are reducing their holdings, further solidifying the bear market structure.
Technical indicators are showing bullish signals in the short term. Following last week's close above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this week saw an additional 6% increase. The Golden Cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the upward trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a potential rebound on the charts. However, Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant reconfirmed that on-chain metrics indicate we have already entered the early stages of a bear market, analyzing that even if the charts look impressive, it is likely a 'bear market relief rally' where smart money is actually exiting.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently engaged in a fierce tug-of-war around the $76,800 mark, which is the average purchase price for traders. If this price is breached, traders will enter profit territory, potentially leading to a massive sell-off. If it fails to break through, it could suppress potential sell-side liquidity and continue a boring sideways movement. In a situation where it has plummeted 52% from its all-time high of $126,000, whether this rebound signals a true recovery or is the last escape opportunity before a deeper correction depends on whether it can firmly settle above the $76,800 line.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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