Bitcoin, up from April's low... but why can't it break $82,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a breather below the $82,000 resistance level, but it has maintained a medium-term bullish structure by continuously setting higher lows since the April low. Bitcoin.com reported on May 13 (local time) that Bitcoin moved around $80,550 at 8 AM EST, with slowing short-term momentum contending with a broader bullish structure.

At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,550, with a market capitalization of $1.61 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $40.58 billion. The price formed a box range below the $82,000 resistance area, searching for direction.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin repeatedly faced resistance in the $82,000 to $82,800 range, but the overall structure maintained a cautious bullish trend. Bitcoin has consistently made higher lows since the April low near $70,480, and buyers have defended the late $70,000 correction zone multiple times.

However, recent candlesticks showed hesitation near the short-term high of around $82,833. This signals a potential weakening of short-term upward momentum. Bitcoin.com analyzed that the sideways movement near key moving averages reinforces the current structure, which is leaning from neutral to bullish, and that support is being maintained between $79,000 and $80,000.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been pushed down from its high of $82,458 and is trapped in a narrowing box range between the $80,300 support and the $81,500 resistance. The pattern of lower highs after the peak suggested potential short-term distribution, and the slowing rebound volume indicated that traders were becoming more cautious near the upper resistance.

On the 1-hour chart, short-term bearishness intensified after Bitcoin failed to settle above $81,200. Selling pressure pushed the price back down to around $80,500, and the short-term exponential moving average continued to act as nearby support. The 10-day exponential moving average was located around $80,465, with immediate resistance formed between $81,000 and $81,300.

To the downside, the defense of the $80,300 level is key in the short term. Failure to hold this level could rapidly increase downward pressure towards $79,500. Conversely, if Bitcoin clearly breaks above $81,500 with accompanying volume, the mid-$84,000s are presented as the next upward target.

Technical indicators generally showed a neutral trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 60, and Stochastic at 76, indicating balanced momentum rather than overheating. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) recorded 69, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) was 32, supporting the market's lack of clear direction. The Awesome Oscillator showed stable underlying momentum at 3,593, and the Momentum 10 indicator remained in positive territory at 2,223. In contrast, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) 12, 26 values were 1,774, pointing to a slowdown in short-term momentum.

Moving averages were generally favorable to the upside. The 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) was at $80,465, and the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) was at $80,829. The 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA formed a nearby support zone at $79,207 and $79,165, respectively. The 30-day EMA was $77,994, and the 30-day SMA was $78,095.

Long-term trend support lines were also relatively solid. The 50-day EMA was at $76,404, the 50-day SMA was at $74,594, the 100-day EMA was at $76,716, and the 100-day SMA was at $71,818. However, the 200-day EMA at $82,003 and the 200-day SMA at $82,277 remain as upper resistance areas that Bitcoin has not yet clearly recovered.

Bitcoin.com assessed that as long as the $79,000 to $80,000 support zone holds, the higher timeframe Bitcoin structure leans towards the upside. Conversely, failure to recover the $81,000 to $81,500 resistance zone could increase short-term downward pressure, and a break below $79,000 could open up a retracement to the late $77,000s.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*