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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image
As Bitcoin (BTC) climbs back above $80,000, the price structure observed in the 2017 and 2021 cycles is drawing attention again. Bitcoinist reported on the 12th, citing an analysis by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, that Bitcoin is creating a similar pattern to the fakeout structure seen in the mid-stages of the past two bull markets.
Merlijn analyzed that Bitcoin created a fakeout in both 2017 and 2021 by rebounding above a horizontal support zone and then dipping back below it. At the time, traders who had opened positions based on that support line were forced to stop out, but that movement was not the end of the bull run. Bitcoin subsequently reversed direction and entered a rally towards new all-time highs.
The core of this analysis is that the recent recovery above $80,000 might not be a confirmed bullish signal but rather a final trap before a larger expansion. Merlijn raised the possibility that Bitcoin might be creating a similar structure in 2025. According to his forecast, the next move could be a sharp drop below the support line, followed by an immediate return into the trading range.
If Bitcoin creates another bearish trap, the price could drop to the green support zone, shaking out weak holders. In this process, the market might mistakenly believe that a deeper bearish reversal has begun. Bitcoinist reported that in this scenario, Bitcoin could even fall below $60,000.
However, the bullish scenario holds true if Bitcoin quickly recovers that support zone. As Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,000, this price level acts as a technical baseline for determining whether the recovery will continue.
Bitcoin has settled above $80,000 on a weekly closing basis for the first time since January, but the market is not entirely out of the danger zone. A move above $82,000 would strengthen the bullish argument and open up possibilities for further gains. Conversely, a drop below $78,000 could signal the beginning of a bearish path.
Merlijn's final outlook leans towards the bullish side. If Bitcoin follows the patterns of 2017 and 2021, a parabolic surge similar to the past could be replicated, according to the analysis. He believes that the current structure could eventually lead Bitcoin to new price highs above $242,000. Bitcoinist reported that Bitcoin was trading at $80,790 at the time of writing.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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