XRP Rises Despite $430 Million Sell-Off..."Futures Market Sells, Price Rises"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

XRP has surpassed $1.46 despite $434 million in futures selling pressure. While open interest on major exchanges is increasing again with price recovery, spot demand has not clearly followed, leading to a growing debate over whether this rise is a genuine recovery or a temporary, derivatives-driven rebound.

NewsBTC reported on the 13th, citing a CryptoQuant report, that XRP has shown recovery since its February low, rising above $1.46. Binance's XRP open interest increased from approximately $207 million on April 30 to about $232 million currently. An increase in open interest during a price rise indicates expanding trader participation.

However, the core point highlighted by CryptoQuant is the discrepancy between the price increase and derivatives flows. Binance's Perpetual Futures Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) dropped to approximately minus $434 million. This suggests that even as XRP rose, perpetual futures traders were selling or taking defensive positions rather than joining the upward trend.

The spot market also has not confirmed a strong accumulation trend. The estimated spot CVD for all centralized exchanges dropped to approximately $575 million, even as XRP rose above $1.46. If this rise were driven by broad spot buying, this indicator should have risen with the price, but it moved in the opposite direction, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally.

The expansion of leverage was not limited to Binance. On May 11 alone, open interest increased by approximately $18 million on Binance, $10.4 million on OKX, and $8.5 million on Bybit. A total of $36.9 million in new open interest accumulated across these three exchanges in a single day, indicating a simultaneous expansion of derivatives participation.

NewsBTC summarized the current XRP market structure as one where prices are rising, leverage is accumulating again, but spot demand is not following. This analysis suggests it's less of a clear bullish breakout and more of a derivatives stress test, examining whether the market can validate the rise with organic demand.

Technically, XRP has been consolidating for several weeks above a key support zone formed after the February capitulation sell-off. It has significantly improved from the February low near $1.10, and buying pressure recovered the 50-day moving average, bringing the price back into the $1.40 to $1.50 range. This range has been identified as the short-term maximum battleground, having thwarted multiple upward attempts since March.

Selling pressure has also failed to create a significant downward collapse. XRP has continued to form higher lows since the April low, and short-term moving averages have begun to flatten below the price. Trading volume also remains lower than the panic-driven surge during the February crash, suggesting a shift from a forced liquidation phase to a more balanced market environment.

However, the overall structure remains vulnerable as long as XRP trades below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. If buyers recover and hold the $1.50 range, the next upward targets are suggested to be around $1.65 to $1.70.

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