Bitcoin, up 37% but still unstable... "Beware of 20,000 BTC profit-taking"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged 37% since April 2026, but on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant assessed this rebound as a rise within a broader bear market phase. While some market experts interpreted this rebound as a sign of a new bull market, CryptoQuant's unrealized profit data showed that it has not yet approached bull market levels.

NewsBTC reported on the 13th, citing an analysis by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, that Bitcoin holders' profit-taking has increased to its highest level in three months. Bitcoin surpassed $81,000 on May 5th and rose to $82,000 on May 6th, but subsequently faced resistance in that range. This marked the first time Bitcoin reached the $82,000 level since late January 2026.

Moreno stated that Bitcoin holders recorded a maximum realized profit of 14,600 BTC in a single day on May 4th. This is the highest single-day figure since December 10th, 2025. The 30-day net profit also exceeded 20,000 BTC. He analyzed that these figures support the possibility of investors taking profits, which could increase Bitcoin's price volatility.

Moreno characterized the recent price movement as a "bear market rally," despite Bitcoin trading around $80,000 after a more than 20% increase since early April. He explained that the recent price rise stemmed from eased macroeconomic pressures and an undervalued state that persisted from January to March 2026. He also cited a surge in perpetual futures demand as a factor supporting Bitcoin's price.

However, Moreno suggested that a significant portion of this buying interest might have been driven by leveraged traders rather than new spot accumulation. While social and whale investor sentiment remains in the fear zone, price scores and volatility indicators are showing greed signals. This was interpreted to mean that the price movement itself is driving the rally, rather than a genuine shift in investor sentiment.

Although Bitcoin's 30-day realized profit exceeded 20,000 BTC, Moreno pointed out that it is still a significant difference from the 130,000 BTC to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He stated that while perpetual futures demand continues to rise, spot demand and exchange inflows are weaker than expected, and the current trend is a rally accompanied by a significant risk of correction, but has not yet reached a definitive distribution top.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*