Bitcoin, still cheap?...Matthew Sigel "Can go up to $160,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

A target price of $160,000 is once again drawing market attention amidst analysis suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) is still undervalued based on gold and US stock market valuations.

Benzinga reported on May 12 (local time) that Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated Bitcoin could rise to $160,000 if it catches up to the current level indicated by the Buffett Indicator. Sigel explained via X (formerly Twitter) that if Bitcoin recovers the 35x Bitcoin-to-gold cross ratio suggested by the Buffett Indicator, the target price would be $160,000.

According to the article, Bitcoin is trading around $81,000, and gold prices are near all-time highs. Within this trend, the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is presented as approximately 17x. The chart shared by Sigel compared the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio with the Buffett Indicator, which compares the total value of the US stock market to its gross domestic product. The chart showed that while the US stock market rose to 230% of GDP between 2025 and 2026, Bitcoin lagged relatively behind.

Sigel argued that the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is still lower than historical levels when compared to past periods where US stocks traded at high valuations relative to GDP. His $160,000 forecast is not simply a price trend but a calculation that simultaneously reflects Bitcoin's relative value against gold and the degree of overheating in the US stock market. The interpretation is that the current price is cheap if the market re-evaluates Bitcoin based on gold and stock market valuations.

Sigel had previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, citing demographic shifts and young investors' willingness to allocate to Bitcoin. He stated on CNBC's Halftime Report, “If you look at demographic trends, it will be similar to the video game industry. Thirty years ago, kids played video games, but now Elon Musk also plays video games. People don't stop. The same goes for Bitcoin.” Sigel also cited central banks beginning to purchase Bitcoin as a reserve asset as evidence that the major trend is accelerating.

Regarding the short-term market structure, Sigel also maintained a relatively optimistic stance. He explained that the recent rally has moved closely with macro trends, as the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq reached a five-year high. In the derivatives market, clear signs of overheating are not yet visible, and options and futures data suggest that the current trend is closer to a short-covering rally accompanied by negative positioning. Sigel said, “Positioning still looks negative to us,” adding, “So we are seeing it quite constructively.”

The $160,000 Bitcoin target price emerged from an analysis combining the recovery of relative value against gold, the divergence from US stock market valuations, and low overheating signals in the derivatives market. Sigel believes that Bitcoin is not in the late stage of an already finished rally but rather in a phase of catching up to prices that have lagged behind gold and the stock market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*