Arthur Hayes "Bitcoin Has Bottomed Out"...Forecast of a Sprint Towards $145,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has declared that Bitcoin (BTC) has hit its price bottom.

On May 12 (local time), Hayes analyzed that the recent drop to $80,500 was the lowest point of this correction. He predicted that a price recovery would occur due to an expansion of global liquidity supply. The end of quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve and improved dollar liquidity are key drivers for Bitcoin's rise.

Hayes stated at the Consensus Miami 2026 event that the market narrative is changing. In the past, there were significant deflationary concerns due to artificial intelligence, but now inflation caused by war is driving prices up. The deepening conflict between the US and Iran is accelerating currency issuance. Hayes emphasized, "War means currency evaporation, which acts as a catalyst to increase Bitcoin's value."

The expansion of credit creation capacity within the financial system is also positive for Bitcoin. Due to enhanced supplementary leverage ratio regulations implemented in April this year, commercial banks' lending capacity has increased by $1.3 trillion. As demand for credit to finance war supplies grows, the banking credit multiplier is expected to triple. Hayes diagnosed that liquidity expansion would prevent an economic slowdown in the real economy and promote capital inflow into Bitcoin.

Hayes set a target price for Bitcoin to reach $145,000 by the end of the year. He currently maintains 95% of his portfolio in long positions, with a cash allocation of about 5%. He expressed a negative view on the altcoin market. Hayes criticized that 99% of circulating altcoins have no long-term survival value. He advised investors to focus on changes in money supply rather than regulations.

Bitcoin is proving its intrinsic value as a means of value transfer free from state control. Hayes asserted that Bitcoin trading around the $81,000 mark is not due to institutional approval. He explained that its utility in freely moving value outside the banking network supports its price. With the resumption of global liquidity supply, Bitcoin is expected to enter a powerful price discovery phase again.

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