Bitcoin halts panic selling, when will the 'money war' to break $82,000 begin?

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The fear-driven sell-off that shook Bitcoin (BTC) has finally subsided, but powerful new capital inflows to drive a full-fledged price surge remain insignificant, leading to an analysis that the market is at a critical turning point.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on May 12 (local time), as Bitcoin (BTC) recently tested the $82,000 mark, on-chain analyst Axel Adler precisely diagnosed the current market position through realized profit and loss data. According to the analysis, the extreme capitulation phase that lasted from February 5 to March 21 has effectively ended. After the panic selling phase in February, where the ratio of realized losses to gains was four times, the realized profit and loss ratio as of May 10 recorded 1.13, indicating that the market has moved out of a forced stop-loss phase.

However, the end of panic does not immediately lead to an explosive bull market. The situation remains cautious when looking at the 'Bitcoin Realized Cap Net Position Change' indicator, which measures the flow of capital into the network. After capital outflow peaked at -0.087% in February, it successfully turned positive on May 2, but the current figure is only +0.008%. This is 98% weaker compared to the +0.5% level recorded during the 2024 bull run, suggesting that the funding power to drive a full-scale expansion is not yet supported.

Currently, Bitcoin is going through a technical recovery phase, bouncing from its February low near $60,000 and attempting to stabilize above $80,000. On the chart, it is forming higher lows and stably holding above the 50-day moving average near $73,000, indicating a positive structural trend. However, a strong resistance zone positioned between $81,000 and $83,000 has thwarted several breakout attempts, suppressing short-term upward momentum.

In terms of trading volume, the market appears to have entered a temporary equilibrium. Participation has decreased compared to the aggressive rebound phase in March and April, which signals that while selling pressure has disappeared, sufficient spot demand to push prices higher has not yet coalesced. Experts view this phenomenon as a condensation phase where energy accumulates before being released, and they assess that real capital inflows are essential to overcome the persistent selling pressure near the resistance level.

In conclusion, Bitcoin has passed the worst fear phase, but there is still a long way to go before entering a true capital expansion phase. If the $82,000 resistance level is decisively broken, the target price could rapidly extend to the $86,000 to $90,000 range. Conversely, if the $78,000 support level breaks, it could lead to another tedious sideways movement or a deeper correction. Therefore, the amount of new liquidity flowing into the market in the coming days will be a measure of the authenticity of the rebound.

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