Trump-Iran Clash and BOJ Variable... Cryptocurrency Market on High Alert

▲ Japanese Yen and Bitcoin (BTC) ©

Bitcoin managed to hold the $81,000 level but hit resistance at the 200-day moving average, putting its direction back to the test. Compounding this, the possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and concerns about prolonged Middle East tensions are increasing market anxiety.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on May 12 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade above $81,000 but failed to break through the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $82,894. The market is also focusing on the possibility of a BOJ interest rate hike amid renewed instability in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.

US President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's peace proposal as a "foolish offer," leading to a rise in Brent crude to $103 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $95. The media analyzed that the surge in oil prices is reigniting global inflation concerns. In response, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering raising its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.75% to 1%. Indeed, after the BOJ raised rates from 0.50% to 0.75% last December, Bitcoin fell by approximately 25% during January-February this year.

Technically, Bitcoin maintains a short-term bullish trend. The price is moving above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, increasing the possibility of a golden cross formation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in a buy-dominant trend at 62, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a moderate upward signal. However, the strong resistance at the 200-day EMA is somewhat slowing down the upward momentum.

In the altcoin market, Cronos (CRO) and Injective (INJ) led the bullish trend. Cronos traded at $0.0801, with its RSI rising to 75, entering the overbought zone, and its MACD upward trend expanding. Injective also maintained above $4.50, recovering the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $4.28. The media diagnosed that while both assets maintain strong upward momentum, the short-term overheating burden is also increasing.

The market views whether Bitcoin can break through the 200-day EMA of $82,894 on a closing basis in the future as a key turning point. Conversely, in case of a decline, the 100-day EMA at $76,782 and the 50-day EMA at $76,256 are suggested as major support levels. With Middle East risks and changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy simultaneously emerging as market variables, the possibility of increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market is also being raised again.

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