PMI Breaking 50, a Signal for Alt Season?...Analyst: "Bottomed in February, Preparing for a Major Counterattack"

▲ Altcoin

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a macroeconomic indicator, has entered an expansion phase. Simultaneously, an analysis suggests that the altcoin market is preparing for a full-fledged bull market transition, having passed through a period of adjustment that followed the end of quantitative tightening.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, analyzed in a video released on May 11 (local time) that the rebound in the Purchasing Managers' Index could support a strong recovery in the risk asset market. He noted that the small-cap-focused Russell 2,000 index has entered a new price discovery phase since its inception. Gambardello explained that the macroeconomic scenario he has presented since November 2025 is in the process of materializing, and the market is undergoing a normalization phase after the end of quantitative tightening (QT), which began in December last year.

Historically, whenever the Purchasing Managers' Index surpassed 50 and transitioned into expansion, the Russell 2,000 index showed a strong upward trend. Similar patterns were repeated in 1991, 2003, 2010, and 2020. Gambardello diagnosed that this change in indicators could point to the beginning of a productivity improvement cycle, beyond a simple economic rebound. As the cryptocurrency market has also shown a high correlation with macroeconomic trends, the recovery in risk asset preference could spread to the altcoin market, according to the analysis.

Trend reversal signals are also being detected in the total altcoin (Altcoin, ALT) market capitalization chart, excluding Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC). Gambardello presented the 200-day moving average near $1.13 trillion and the 50-week moving average around $1.25 trillion as key resistance zones. He explained that if the altcoin market breaks through and settles above this zone, a strong upward trend could be confirmed, starting from the short-term bottom formed in February.

Support zones based on Fibonacci retracement levels were also presented as important. Gambardello explained that if a correction occurs, the zone from the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $980 billion to the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at $960 billion could act as strong support. This zone was mentioned as an area that showed support during the 2024 correction period and served as a springboard for a rebound. It is assessed that if the trend of setting higher lows from the current price level is maintained, the possibility of a bull market transition increases.

With the macroeconomic environment and technical indicators aligning, the potential for a concurrent rise in small-cap stocks and the cryptocurrency market is highlighted. The altcoin market has entered a critical zone to determine its direction before breaking through the $1.25 trillion resistance level. The further expansion of the Purchasing Managers' Index and the breakthrough of key moving averages were presented as major criteria for judging the sustainability of a future altcoin bull run.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*